2018 – ROMANIAN IN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. TWO MILLION ROMANIAN`S WILL CHOSE EXPATRIATION.

ROMANIA`S ECONOMY IN  2018: THE 10th  YEAR OF RECESSION

 

Friday, 10 March 2017, The Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation hosted a debate on the dire situation of the Romanian economy as revealed in the latest United Nations Expert Philip Alston report.

 

Romanian authorities are in denial over the poverty and crisis in the country-Philip Alston.

The regular economic study conference has united economical experts from Romania, European Parliament, managers and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

 

The most important topic was highlighting the negative effects of publicising doctored reports about Romanian economic development, reports that are having no bases in real economy and are reminiscent of the communist like distortions of economic figures.

 

Romanian economy is in deep crisis and poverty, and no amount of lies and propaganda can change this fact, and the latest popular revolt of January 2017 was triggered by these politic of economic lies, was the conclusion of the debate.

 

2009- 2016 –the world crisis and the long-lasting impact on Romanian economy.

 

Three hundred economists, bankers and economic journalists attended the economic conference.

 

The conference started with an evaluation of the first wave of impact of economic crisis in the recent period: 2009-2016.

 

Between 2009-2016 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued with huge levels of unemployment ad poverty.

 

Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was also strongly shaken.

In total the economic output of Romanian economy has gone down by 35%, unemployment around 40% of the working force and forced below poverty line over 65% of country population.

 

Romania: the most poverty striken country in Europe.

No economic growth, no jobs, no hope!

The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 to decrease further with margins between 2-3% in 2013 to 2016.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating, today we are below the 1996 level-the record law of Romanian economy.

Unfortunately, the economic collapse of 2012-2016 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2017.

2012-2016: The period of economic disaggregation of Romanian economy.

2012 and 2016 period will be remembered as the worst time of recent economic turmoil in Romania, was the conclusion voiced by all the experts at the gathering.

 

In 2015 and 2016 the Romanian economy had started to show signs of deep financial crisis.

 The banking and insurance system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point.

The inflation had resurfaced from January 2017 and the experts appreciate that a 20% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the fact that internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended, and this year the GDP will shrink by 3 to 6%.

 A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies succeeded only to aggravate the economic crisis.

 

Vox populi 2017: Hunger and poverty had engulfed Romania.

 

2017 – Maximum point of Romanian economic crisis.

 

The most worrisome factor in January 2017  is the information that: almost 700.000 Romanians are in financial bankruptcy according to National Bank estimate.

 

The 2017 will be a decisive year when Romanian society with almost 60% of population living below poverty line will be confronted by the ripple effects of European meltdown and world stagnant economy.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc.

 

In 2017 Romania will be affected by inflation rise, economic gaping deficit and in practice an economic shut down.

In January 2017 the number of economic actors and private factories registration has gone down by a whopping 33,94% announced National Council of Small and Middle Enterprises.

 

Practically we are speaking about economic shut down and devastating economic crisis that will see probably 1 to 2 million Romanians leaving the country in the next two years.

 

The spiraling down of economy will be affected by the decay in European economic activity, effects of anti-Russian sanction and the redraw of investors from the Eastern Europe markets in the aftermath of Greece and Hungary crisis.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain exit, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 3-6% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2017 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline.

 

It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level.

Any statements about a Romanian economic growth are unsubstantiated or bluntly laying.

On European level the forecasts are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , closed the argument the chief economist Mihail Raceanu.

It will be a miracle if we have in 2017 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2017 and 2022 to stop the decline and in 2025 to start the recovery.

2017 budget-A budget that will trigger a deeper economic crisis.

 

In 2017 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling luck of funding and investment but also with a budget of incredible largesse that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2017 budget is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The 2017 budget expected huge deficit is not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, inflation will destroy the country financial reserves and the individual savings as well and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economists around 3-6% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

 

Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 2 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for direct economic investment programs.

The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year.

 

The present day budget of 2017 is not only of severe economic chaos, but of severe contraction, stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economic recovery: postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

The economic recession will make it hard for Romanian economy to recuperate the last loses in the context of negative governmental involvement, high inflation, drastic increase in country debt, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke this year an economic decrease of more than 5% of GDP or even 8% of GDP after others opinions.

 

 

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2017, the foreign debt crisis.

The government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total: the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 105 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like: Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loans from private banks, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions.

This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates, will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Another gloomy factor is the unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 15% of the active population and with another 35% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aid, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 50% of the population.

This figure must be put in perspective with more than 60% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed.

Romania economy is in crisis and no plans for a future development had being adopted.

2017: The financial and banking crisis.

 

The conclusion of the most important economic experts in Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult phase that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s.

The economic crisis will continue until 2020 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025.

This decade will be, without a doubt, the lost decade of Romania, but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

 

The situation is made even worst by the fact that: Romanian leaders are in denial in regard to the social and economic crisis of the country as UN rapporteur Philip Alston stated.

PROFESSOR DR. ANTON CARAGEA OPENS THE ROMANIAN NATIONAL DAY EXHIBITION

On 2015 December 1st, in order to mark the National Day of Romania, the exhibition: The History of Romanian Elections (1990-2016) was unveiled by Professor Dr. Anton Caragea.

IRICE President General Director and Academician Mircea Constantinescu are unveiling the Exhibition dedicated to the History of Romanian Elections

(1990-2016)

The open exhibition is made more relevant by the fact that: in 2016 the Romanian electors will go to the ballot, in two crucial elections: for local administration and in the autumn 2016 for a new Parliament.

In this context: I found that an exhibition, dedicated to parliamentary elections, highlighting the role and significance of Parliament and parliamentarians in a democracy, and marking an assessment of the importance of Parliament based democracy is essential, stated Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, IRICE President General Director, giving the starting signal for the exhibition.

The exhibition is hosted, only befitting to his purpose, in the temple of Romanian democracy: the Parliament building, underlined Professor Dr. Anton Caragea in the opening speech.

 

The initiative of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation to open a public exhibition on Romanian Election History, hosted in the Romanian Parliament will be the showcase of the prowess and capabilities of Parliament in a functional democracy.

ROMANIAN ECONOMIC CRISIS AND RAMPANT POVERTY CAN BE TACKLED ON SDG`S FRAMEWORK

The Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation (IRICE) welcomes the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and reiterates its commitment to work towards the implementation of the Goals.

Romania has adopted, on 25 September 2015, the action plan for the fulfillment of Sustainable Development Goals, alongside other 192 other countries during United Nations General Assembly.

17 main points on the Agenda of Sustainable Development Goal`s are promising abetter world for us all!

The new the Sustainable Development Goals come in continuation of the formerly known of Millennium Development Goals (MDG) in the effort to steer the world in the directions of economic development, environmental protection, and human values respect.

The Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation has cooperated in the completion of Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and is in acquiescence with the newly established Sustainable Development Goals, announces IRICE-President Director General (PDG) Professor Dr. Anton Caragea.

IRICE has contributed with significant global reach, and can make an important contribution to the achievement of the SDGs, particularly in the areas of job creation, sustainable consumption and production and the preservation of natural resources.

“Issues such as combating Romanian economic crisis and its crippling effects, address climate change, and especially poverty reduction and inclusive growth need to be at the center of Romanian development. Now that the Goals have been approved, it is time to step up our action, time to advance policies and business strategies that minimize the negative effects of Romanian economic crisis” said IRICE PDG, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea.

 

IRICE-President Director General (PDG) Professor Dr. Anton Caragea signs the  Development Goals Engagement 

The SDGs are carved as a universal 17-goal agenda and action plan for people, the planet and prosperity for all countries and require all stakeholders to act in collaborative partnerships.

The SDGs were approved by the 70th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, on 25 September 2015.

REAFFIRMED FRIENDSHIP: ROMANIA AND VENEZUELA

On 11 June 2015, a friendly and cooperation meeting had taken place between Prof. Dr. Anton Caragea, President Director-General of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation and H.E. Victor Ramon Carazo, Ambassador of  Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

A friendly dialogue between H.E. Ambassador Victor Ramon Carazo and IRICE President-Professor Dr. Anton Caragea 

Prof. Dr. Anton Caragea express his amicable fillings and friendly interest towards the recent evolution`s in Venezuela, evolutions that are consolidating Venezuela`s economic development and independence, open society and are creating a sense of perfect unity between the people of Venezuela and the government.

Venezuela`s revolutionary transformation true to Commander Hugo Chavez Frias legacy under the supervision and guidance of President Nicolas Maduro, is witnessed with sympathy and interest in Romania, stated Prof. Dr.Anton Caragea.

H.E. Ambassador Victor Ramon Carazo presented the latest evolutions in the frame of bilateral relations, emphasizing the numerous solidarity activities of people of Romania with Venezuela`s revolutionaries evolutions and building new bridges of understanding between Romania and Venezuela.

The parties had appreciated that between Romanian and Venezuela there are many  common interests, designed to forge a good understanding  between the two nations .

The Romania-Venezuela relationship must be an example for a better relation between Romania and Latin America.

If in the last decade the bilateral dialogue with this area was faltering, now it is a auspicious moment for reconstructing and rebuilding this framework of dialogue and friendship with Venezuela as the prime gate for Romania`s access.

The dialogue had continued on concrete aspects and analyses of economic, political and cultural bilateral relations and on ways of fostering this dialogue on to the future.

The discussion led the foundations of continuing the dialogue and  fostering the relations between Romania and the heart of Latin America-Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

IRAQ AMBASSADOR VISITS TARGOVISTE

On 12 February 2015, at the invitation of Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, President Director General of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation (IRICE) H.E. Omer Berzinji- Iraq Ambassador to Romania and his delegation where invited to visit Dambovita county, in order to analyze the economic, tourist and investment opportunities of the region.

 

Iraq Ambassador-Omer Berzinji is touring the UNESCO Heritage Dealu Monastery-art monument.

We are recalling our readers that: in September 2014, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had decided to include the city of Targoviste in the diplomatic program of IRICE: Discover Romania!

During his visit, Ambassador Omer Berzinji presented, to the academic community of Valahia University of Targoviste, a conference destined to outline the main elements of today’s situation of Iraq, to present the main figures of anti-terror conflict that is raging in the country and to emphasize the image of better and united Iraq of tomorrow.

 

Professor Dr. Anton Caragea outlines the main phases of Romanian-Iraqi diplomatic relation during the last century.

 

On the rostrum, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea-IRICE Chairman had on his turn presented a paper on the Diplomatic Relations between Iraq and Romania (1919-2015) and outlined the main historical phases of the bilateral relations in the last century.

In the concluding moments of the conference, at the proposal of Valahia University Rector-Professor Dr. Calin Oros, a thanking vote was addressed to H.E. Ambassador Omer Berzinji and Professor Dr. Anton Caragea for their presentations.

After the conference Ambassador Omer Berzinji and his team from the embassy and Professor Dr. Anton Caragea enjoyed a presentation of the regional opportunities.

 

Iraq Ambassador Omer Ahmed Karim Berzinji is reviewing the place of execution of former Romanian leader-Nicolae Ceausescu during  December 25, 1989.

 

Ambassador Omer Berzinji visited the main landmarks and historical and cultural monuments of the region such as: Valahia University, Princes Palace of Targoviste, Chindiei Tower, Dealu Monastery etc and the Revolution Museum with the place of execution of former President of Romania-Nicolae Ceausescu was specially opened for his visit and also enjoyed a trip to hotels, lodging facilities and economic objectives of the county.

A special dinner in the honour of the high guests was offered by the authorities of the region and also a complex musical program that garnered the main figures of singers and actors of the county.

 

In the concluding remarks of his visit H.E. Omer Berzinji- Iraq Ambassador had assessed the regional potential as a powerful driving force for local development and underlined the necessity for strengthening the relations in the sphere of economy and university cooperation between the regions of Iraq and Dambovita county and express his heartily felt gratitude for  Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, Chairman of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation for a perfect carved visit.

CITY OF TARGOVISTE IS REGISTERED AS AN OBJECTIVE OF DISCOVER ROMANIA DIPLOMATIC TRIPS PROGRAM

In the period between 25 to 26 September 2014, at the invitation of local authorities, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, Chairman of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation (IRICE) and Senator Ionel Agrigoroaei, from the Economic Committee of Romanian Parliament had visited the Dambovita county in order to analyze the economic, tourist and investment opportunities of the region and to evaluate the inclusion of city of Targoviste in the diplomatic program of IRICE: Discover Romania!

During the visit where highlighted the enormous agricultural, industrial and economic opportunities of the Targoviste region.

The local authorities of the region, asked Professor Dr. Anton Caragea-IRICE Chairman to support the promotion and presentation of the regional opportunities in order to reshuffle the economic profile of Targoviste.

In the last span of time, IRICE had organized diplomatic visits in areas such as: Bucovina, Maramures, Hunedoara-Hateg, Danube Delta etc. the visit having as visible economic results.

During his opportunity assessment visit, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had visited landmark historical and cultural monuments of the region such as: Valahia University, Princes Palace of Targoviste, Chindiei Tower, Dealu Monastery etc.

The visit also encompasses assessments of economic centers of the region and mass media presentation and TV interviews at the main TV channels of the Dambovita region.

The place of execution of former Romanian leader Nicolae Ceausescu during Romanian 1989 Revolution 

In the concluding remarks of his visit, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had assessed the regional potential as a powerful driving force for local development and underlined that the only chance for Targoviste is the development as cultural, academic and research center in the region, attracting foreign capital and investors interested in promoting research activities.

The city of Targoviste is an opportunity that cannot be overlook by diplomatic community, concluded the Chairman of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation.

REAL ESTATE PRICES IN ROMANIA AND BUCHAREST IN 2014. PROGNOSIS OF THE REAL ESTATE CONFERENCE

On 10 February 2014, the annual real estate conference was held under the patronage of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania.

The tile of the conference was self explaining: REAL ESTATE IN ROMANIA IN 2014. BETWEEN DEVELOPERS BANKRUPTCY AND CRUMBLING PRICES. The conference was a get together of real estate agents, bankers, property experts and evaluators, brokers and real estate funds from Romania and EU and economists.

2013: A 35% RECORD DROP IN REAL ESTATE PRICES .

 

The debates started by highlighting the latest evolution`s and drop in prices on real estate market in Romania during 2013.

The average price reduction was around 35% last year, the biggest drop since the economic crisis hit Romania, but the prices are still a long way to go before they reach the real estate real potential. New significant drops in prices (around 50% of present day marks) are expected, until the market will stabilized and the investment in real estate will become one more time attractive and efficient.

From an initial value of 1.200/1.300 euro per build square meter the prices have dropped by the year end, towards 650-450 euro per constructed square meter, but is a long way to go until normal prices, requested by the market, will come back on Romanian real estate.

The real dimensions of real estate crisis in Romania where made public: real estate frozen projects are reaching a staggering value of 8 billion euro, the bankruptcy numbers in the real estate developer`s field reach 80% of the initial investor`s numbers and 4 billion euro, announced to be invested in real estate market never materialized .

2014: THE PROGNOSIS SHOWS A 50% REDUCTION IN PRICES.

Banks don`t need homes. People do ! are crying this British evacuees from their houses. 

The real estate market will continue the downward spiral in 2014, accelerated by the economic crisis and low income, with prices decreased by 80% on rural areas and on secondary or vacation house market and provincial cities and around 40% to 50% on premium real estate objectives in Bucharest areas.

The prices are expected to fall below 200-250 euro per constructed/ square meter in prime areas of Bucharest real estate.

The falling in prices is fueled by the ongoing banking crisis, the reduction of banking institutions available to offer real estate loans, the spike in banking interest rates, high inflation, dramatic decrees in investment, drastic reduction in real income for majority of Romanians, unfavorable economic prognosis, ongoing economic crisis and also decrees in foreign investments and in revenues from Romanian working abroad etc.

To this long list of negative trends we can add the 120.000 new flats, houses and villas that will be placed on the market by the banks in the foreclosure process.

This new properties, that will be launched on the market from April/May 2014 will be sold with reduction`s in prices ranging from 50% to 25% percent from the initial announced price.

Already the banks presented the auctions starting prices as ranging fro 15.000 to 20.000 euro for one room flat, to 25.000 euro per two rooms flat and around 35.000 euro for three room flats. The mansions and villas are sold at pricing ranging from 35-40.000 euro per 200 squared meter’s villas in high luxury areas and as low as 20-30.000 euro in secondary areas.

The prices for land in Bucharest area already dropped with 50% in 2013 and will furthermore decrease with 50% this year, bellow 50 euro per square meter in central areas of Bucharest.

Other phenomena presented during conference, that are impacting downwards the prices are: a drop in population real income by 30% in 2013, this had impacted drastic the number of real estate buyers ( from a maximum of 1 million Romanians active on real estate market before the crisis to 20.000 persons to date).

The banking system is engulfed in crisis and choked by low-commercial value properties; the average real interest for real estate credit is around 20% which is making the cost of real estate credits unsustainable.

We can safely conclude that taking a real estate loan in this period is the path towards bankruptcy and foreclosure for 90% of the clients.

Who borrows today goes bankrupt tomorrow, was the bitter joke of the bankers, that confessed that banking system is in a vicious circle until the prices will reach the 200 euro per square meter mark, until this moment the loan market is blocked.

OVER FLOW IN OFFERS IS DESTRUCTIVE TO THE REAL ESTATE MARKET.

 

During 2014 the real estate collapse will continue and be aggravated on the count of individual properties foreclosures and also company bankruptcy that will flood the market with over 50.000 hectares of prime land that will press down the prices during this year.

Overcrowding the market a new stock of 3.000 villas and mansions, will also appear on the market during 2014, in areas as: Colentina, Bucurestii Noi, Pipera, Baneasa, Damaroaia etc.

This will be sold on the market at prices bellow 50.000 euro per property and will push toward collapse the luxury real estate market.

This are conservative estimates, based on property values information, listed  already on the market by the banks on the foreclosure process, already put on sale at 50% of the initially estimated price and will be further reduced at 25%, accordingly to foreclosure law, stated Lo Petersen from banking consortium active on Romanian market for more than 12 years.

 The decrease in economic activity forecasted for this year will only aggravate the situation, and new properties will be under banking foreclosure, during 2014, concluded the official.

Chief Economist Mihail Racaceanu underlined again and again the fundamental truth that: real estate market can not operate outside the negative climate of Romanian and EU economy.

The real estate market is intricately connected with the decrease of average wage and real income per person and the economy status.

 The price per square meter, in prime real estate areas, cannot be over medium salary value by more than two times. As in Romania the salary is around 150 euro a price per square meter can not exceed more than 300 euro per square meter.

It a clear axiom of economic sustainability, you are breaking it; you go out of business, concluded Mihail Racaceanu.

The responsibility of real estate crisis is resting mostly on the lack of education of Romanian real estate agencies and agents.

 The real estate agent must emphasize the necessity of a rapid reduction of prices in order to mend the crisis on real estate market. The market will restart if we will reach the financial comfort zone around 200-300 euro’s per square meter. If we don’t play honesty and sincerity, the collapse of real estate market will be a never ending story, concluded the chief economist.

This is the hard to swallow truth: who is not cutting rapidly the prices remains excluded from the market.

THE HOUSING AND VILLA MARKET: THE MASSIVE COLLAPSE DURING 2014.

15 more years of more depression on real estate market is the United States experts opinion.

The developers in the areas of villas and houses concluded that this area will be severely hit with drastic reduction of prices during 2014.

The main reason is the fact that: economic crisis had dramatically reduced the number of interested players for buying this type of real estate, corroborating this with decreasing rental market and drastic reduction in number of companies interested to rent such large spaces for offices and the growing expenses to maintain such a property, had gone up impressively, all is worsening the perspective for this type of properties.

This type of properties is the most vulnerable for banking foreclosures because rapid prosecuted and sell on the market at prices below 50.000 euro such villas can help the banks to cut their losses.

During this year areas such as: Mosilor, Pipera, Baneasa, Tunari, still offer the possibility to be sold around 50.000 euro, the rest of the areas of south and east of the capital (Damaroaia, Berceni, Timpuri Noi, Colentina), are completely unfit for marketing and selling because of the inexistence of interested buyers .

The foreclosures will open the market for villas at below 50.000 euro, concluded the panel of experts that also appreciated that around 80% of the total of transaction on real estate will belong to banking auctions and foreclosures .

SIMPLE TRUTH: WHO BUY`S IS A LOOSER !

Unfortunately during 2014 the same order is playing in the real estate market: you bought, you lost.

From the moment that you ink the deal the real value of your house has gone down by 15% and will continue to dwindle.

In order to reignite the real estate market, the key role is belonging to the real estate agencies.  They must apply the necessary pressure to bring down the prices by at least 50% and to lead the properties owners from the la la land fantasies prices to a real assessment of the value of their properties, in order to restart financial operations and re-emergence of profit on the market.

We should understand two self evident lessons: the internal market with a dwindling number of buyers and unpredictable income is blocking any major acquisitions and foreign investors are NOT coming to the market.

No investment in Romania is possible at prices of 400-500 euro per square meter as long as similar opportunities are to be found in Austria, Hungary, Greece, Turkey or Bulgaria but at prices below 100 euro.  In this moment any buyer of Romanian properties will lose big and heavy, concluded the panel of experts present at the conference.

ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2013: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA

Economic forecast: Romanian economy in 2013. GDP, Inflation, Bankruptcy.

Wednesday 30 of January 2013 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2013: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2013. The aggravating crisis!

Beggars on the street of Romania: a sign of failed economic policy 

The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2012 –the first period of crisis.

The conference started with an evaluation of the impact of economic crisis in the last period: 2009-2012.

In 2009 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating that now we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010-2012 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2013.

Professor dr. Anton Caragea-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation chairing the romanian economist`s meeting.

2011-2012: The period of economic earthquake.

2011 and 2012 will be remembered as the worst years of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

First of all the 2011 has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

2013 – European economic crisis will impact hard on Romania.

The 2013 will be a decisive year to on how will be affected the Romanian economy by the European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc. In 2013 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had became a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2013 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either is bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist- Mihail Racaceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2013 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2013 and 2018 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis level.

Homeless and hungry in Great Britain. How EU crisis will affect Romania ?

2013 budget- a budget of economic decline.

In 2013 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling inflation but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2013 budget is the first budget in the eight year period that is not approved prior to 1-th of January, a negative record that is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 4% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 8-10% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 8 billion euro investment planned for this year the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability. Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 10 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs. The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year. He present day budget is not only of severe austerity but of severe contraction stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The resurgence of inflation will put a dramatic pressing on population economy and will make any recovery unthinkable for the next 1-2 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke next year an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis in the governmental incompetence that by: increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investor in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The Emil Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

In 2012 the Mihai Razvan Ungureanu government succeeded in just a few months to reduce the National bank Reserves by 20 billion euro, an unprecedented squandering of public money in Romanian history.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 12% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.

2013: The worsening of economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts of Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s. The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

A NATION WAY TO PROSPERITY AND GLOBAL SIGNIFICANCE by PROFESSOR DR. ANTON CARAGEA, MA, FINS, EDA

We are living through difficult and boisterous time. A period of rapid changes in world economic and political system, a time of powerful crisis that is shaking the fundaments of national states and of national economies and is putting under strain the social protection and all the values of economic neo-liberalism.

In this chaotic period, just a few nations are allowed the luxury of economic and political long time forecast and predictability: China and United States are creating and proposing to their people and foreign partners a long term vision of development and national statehood construction.
In a time of peril and un-certitude, when even a short time economic prediction is considered hazardous, just a few nations are having the will to act as beacons of lights and direction for their region.

In 17th of December 2012 Kazakhstan had enter to this select club of nations, conscientious of their role and position in the continental and world stage by presenting an ambitious, realistic and well carved plan for future of Kazakhstan until 2050.
By the voice of his President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan had created the prototype of a long term, healthy and stable construction model for the country, the region and the world.

Kazakhstan 2030: weathering the storm and creating a nation.

Kazakhstan it is not at the first step in a managed transition towards a stable and democratic society and a powerful economy.
In 1997 Kazakhstan had already carved the landmarks of his astonishing development by the presidential strategy- Kazakhstan 2030.
Far from being just a window dressing, the strategy for 2030 had proved to be a perfect way for charting Kazakhstan after the independence in the incertitude of nation building and construction of a viable economy.
The program had allowed Kazakhstan to tap into national reserves of oil and gas, to gush out of the enclave country status via the reconstructed Silk Road of energy and trade, to create a modern economy, not depending only on energy resources, to build a huge potential of national intelligence and to foster the economy of knowledge, the base for a XXI century reliable economy.

The long string of economic successes was accompanied in the internal sphere by political stability, based on democratic and open society values, the protection of national and religious minorities.
In the area of external policy, Kazakhstan had gather the powerful laurels of a successful reform project carried out during his Presidency of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. An impressive success was also the unprecedented two year chairmanship of Organization of Islamic Conference that transformed Kazakhstan in a leader of dialogue between Islam and Western world.

The latest major diplomatic achievement of Kazakhstan was the proposal of building an area of security and cooperation in Europe and Asia, launched in September 2012, in Astana, at CICA Conference by President Nursultan Nazarbayev. This latest proposal makes Kazakhstan the promoter of an all-inclusive, intercontinental dialogue, that could transform the political landscape of XXI century.
In the end, Kazakhstan 2030 had proved to be not only a successful strategy for Kazakhstan, but also an example for all the countries of the world on how a nation by the sole fact of building himself, can become a regional and world significant player.

The main pillar of Kazakhstan 2050: understanding of XXI century.

In its world acclaimed book: The Seven Pillars of Wisdom, the famous Lawrence of Arabia had mentioned that: the most important, but also decisive part of a plan is to be in line with the necessity of his time.
Kazakhstan 2050 starts by outlining the fundaments of the world in XXI century. A period of change, of accelerating history, of economic, political and ecological challenges, a world completely different from the world of XX century.
Instead of training to force the reality to enter in the realm of possibility, Kazakhstan 2050 is offering a realistic and practical assessment of the necessities of today world and of the available solutions.
Fallowing his long term tradition, Kazakhstan understands that creating a success story and offering solutions to the world is the best way to serve not only his interest, but also to add value to his place in the world.
Kazakhstan 2050: good news for people of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan had become in the last 20 years an abode of peace, inter-ethnic and inter-religious understanding in a troubled world. One of the explanation is undoubtedly the economic success that made the Kazakhstan not only one of the fastest growing economy in the world, but also a top investor destination in the world economy statistics.

Kazakhstan 2050 is providing the basis for this healthy economy to continue his growth process. Investing in social protection and creating a strong internal demand are key factors for a stable rate of growth. Modernizing the economic potential, investing in new technologies are policy that will insure the world competitiveness of Kazakhstan national economy and the creation of a knowledge based economy are also a profitable long term investment.

The modern economy is based on technological transfer and Kazakhstan is becoming a champion in modernizing the basis of his economy via technology transfer and more important, Kazakhstan educational system mixed with the accent on entrepreneurship in economic development is creating the base for a managerial revolution, that will put Kazakhstan among the top economy`s of the world in term of creativity and intelligence incorporated in economic production.

Extremely interesting it is also the concept of a Kazakhstan patriotism. Instead of playing the card of nationalism or chauvinism, President Nursultan Nazarbayev is calling for the tradition, language and equality to blend into a new and successful Kazakh: a person well educated, wealthy , healthy enjoying the benefits of a modern state and administration and a state of the art medical system.
Kazakhstan is promising to put at the core of his foundation plan for 2050 the individual and his chances to prevail in a complex XXI century.

From Kazakhstan to the world. From world to Kazakhstan.

One of the keys of Kazakhstan national and international success was understanding that Kazakhstan could not evolve alone in the world, but always must stay in touch and be an intricate part of the world evolutions. There are many examples that support this conjecture in Kazakhstan two decades of independence story.

Kazakhstan economic miracle was built on partnership with western companies and oil extraction technology, but also on political negotiation with Russia on Caspian Sea exploration.
The Astana Expo 2017 will also be a proof of the lesson of mutual profit that Kazakhstan is offering to the world. Kazakhstan management of energy, the lessons of ecology and energy for a future, of environment protection, are going to be beneficial for the world economy and for the generations to come. This is just a new illustration of the Kazakhstan concept of successful quest for global significance.
Kazakhstan economic development had transformed the country in a major player in the development of Asia and Europe. Kazakhstan 2050 promises to continue this wise policy: from Kazakhstan to the world, from world to Kazakhstan, creating a synergy that could only beneficial for all the world nations.

Now the lessons of Kazakhstan 2050 are available for everybody: an example of a society of free people building a country for the future, not in isolation or competition, but in harmony with the world nations. In the concert of nations Kazakhstan is ushering in a new tone: a tone of hope.

Professor dr. Anton Caragea MA, FINS, Dr.Hc

ROMANIA HOSTS THE SUPPORT CONFERENCE ON PLATFORM OF SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE AND ASIA LAUNCHED BY PRESIDENT NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV

On 13 November 2012, the Romanian capital: Bucharest, will host the principal conference dedicated to security and cooperation issues in Eurasia region for this year.

 

The Conference on Platform for Security and Cooperation in Europe will forge an European and Romanian diplomatic elite response to the new challenges on security in Europe and Asia.

 

Romanian constant support for peace initiatives proven during Helsinki Conference when Romanian become one of the funding fathers of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and of Helsinki Agreements.

 

 The conference will analyze the most recent proposal put forward to achieve a security area from Atlantic to Pacific and a series of instruments to create confidence building measures and ways to resolving frozen conflicts in Euro-Asian region and to ensure détente on world scale.

 

In September 2012, at the Astana Conference on Central Asian Confidence Initiative (CICA) the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev had presented a complex plan to achieve peace and stability in XXI century.

The Bucharest conference, organized under the High Patronage of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, will debate the response that Europe must present to this peace and security initiative on global level.

 

The conference will listen to key world policy makers such as former Romanian President Mr. Emil Constantinescu, President of Romanian Parliament-Valeriu Zgonea, President Professor dr. Anton Caragea,  Director of European Diplomatic Academy Mr. Mircea Constantinescu, Kazakhstan Ambassador Mr. Talgat Kaliyev, Minister Dan Sova on behalf of Romanian Government etc.

 

In 2010 Romania hosted the Conference on Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE)  in support of reform program of OSCE

 

The new Platform for Security and Cooperation in Europe and Asia will allow Romania and Europe to regain a voice and an identity on international level.

In the last decade, Europe find herself paralyzed in his international politics actions by a list of frozen conflicts in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kosovo , hampered also by economic crisis and by debt crises and last but not least by a lack of long term vision of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE).

On his turn, the Asian continent is confronted by the absence of a general security forum like OSCE, is highly fragmented on security issues and is confronted by a period of inter-state`s conflicts and tensions, aroused by economic crisis and the rapid pace of globalization.

In order to avoid new global conflict, that could destroy the nation-states and put under question the present day international relations system, the only solution is to build a Platform for Security and Cooperation, that will unite all the states and organizations that will uphold as sacred a list of international law principles .

This list of principles such as: independence, national statehood, the non-interference in internal affairs and the cooperation based on reciprocal advantages and equality of small and big states and the relinquishing of the use of force or threat of using force and banning aggressive concepts such as: preventive strike and humanitarian intervention will appear as a necessity on global level.

 

The Committee for preparing the Conference on Platform of  Security and Cooperation in Europe and Asia.    

 

The Bucharest conference will debate the key elements of the Platform of Security and Cooperation in Europe and Asia and will up-hold a response to the peace initiatives tabled by President of Kazakhstan- Nursultan Nazarbayev.

For Romania, the replay can only by a positive one.

Romania is a nation that sustained constantly and sincere, all the peace and confidence building measures on world stage in the last 100 years and a nation that created by his ideas the fundaments of  the theory of relinquishing and banning the use of force or threat of force in the sphere of international relations.

 

The voice of Romania, the voice of peace and moderation, can be heard once more in the Conference on 13 November 2012.