2018 – CRIZA ECONOMICA SI FINANCIARA DIN ROMANIA SE ACUTIZEAZA. DOUA MILIOANE DE ROMANI VOR EMIGRA IN URMATOAREA PERIOADA

In data de 10 martie 2017, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica a gazduit prima conferinta de prognoza economica a anului curent, prezentand datele statistice, prognozele si evolutia economiei romanesti in 2017, sub impactul crizei economice locale ce se agraveaza si cadrul general al economiei mondiale stagnante.

 

Punctul de pornire al discutiei a fost Raportul final al expertului ONU-Philip Alston ce a reliefat crudul adevar al saraciei devastatoare din Romania.

 Autoritatile romane sunt in stare de negare cu privire la adevaratele dimensiuni ale saraciei si crizei economice din tara, a declarat expertul ONU Philip Alston.

 

Conferinta a inceput cu o evaluare a impactului crizei economice, din ultimii ani, asupra peisajului economic.

Cifrele tragice ale crizei economice in care se zbate Romania: fara servicii, fara hrana, 2 milioane de romani se pregatesc sa emigreze din tara.

Astfel, in perioada anilor 2009-2016 criza a afectat zone vitale ale vietii economice precum: industria materialelor de constructii, piata imobiliara si industria usoara, urmata apoi in faza a doua de criza sistemului de asigurari si a sistemului bancar.

 

Reducerile PIB-ului au fost cifrate intre 10% in 2010, 8% in 2011 si o scadere anuala in perioada 2014 si 2016 de 3%.

Din nefericire aceste elemente ale crizei au pus bazele unei noi perioade de scadere economica in 2017.

Perioada anilor 2012 -2017 va fi fara indoiala privita drept cea mai neagra din istoria recenta a economiei romanesti au apreciat in unanimitate expertii prezenti.

Sectoarele de productie si sistemul bancar si de asigurari au fost sever lovite, ceea ce a fragilizat economia nationala dincolo de punctul de rezistenta, ceea ce face recuperarea inimaginabila mai devreme de patru pana la opt ani.

 

Reducerea creditarii interne, a investitiilor externe si a investitiilor interne au facut ca scaderea PIB-ului sa atinga 35% pana la 38% cumulat, in ultimii zece ani.

 

Un factor agravant a fost politica incompetenta a guvernelor din ultimii trei ani, politici publice ce au incurajat haosul legislativ, cresterea taxelor la nivele insuportabile si politica deliberata de supra-impozitare si distrugere a clasei de mijloc, toate au pus bazele acestei crize profunde, de sistem.

 

 

2017-un nou varf al crizei si saraciei in Romania.

 

Cu peste 70% din populatie traind sub limita pragului de saracie, Romania va trebui sa primeasca socul din plin al crizei europene si efectele sale.

 

Intre vestile grele ale anului 2017 prezentate in cadrul conferintei a starnit ingrijorare cifra de aprox. 700.000 de romani aflati in incapacitate de plata a obligatiilor catre banci, anuntata de BNR.

 

Pana acum economia romaneasca a fost lovita de propriile sale probleme: competitivitate redusa, productivitate minima, haos politic guvernamental, inflatie galopanta, lipsa de investitii interne si externe.

De acum, in anul 2017,  la acesti factori interni se vor  adauga: inflatia si deficitul guvernamental exorbitant.

La capitolul factorii externi ce influenteaza criza din Romania se adauga: efectele sanctiunilor impotriva Rusiei, economia stagnanta a Frantei si a Germaniei, efectele iesirii Marii Britanii din Uniunea Europeana, criza economica europeana si efectele crizei din Grecia si Ungaria, ceea ce reduce apetitul pentru investitii in estul Europei.

 

Trei sute de economisti, bancheri si oameni de afaceri au dezbatut cauzele prabusirii economiei romanesti in 2017.

 

Efectele combinate ale acestor crize vor duce la o reducere cu 3% pana la 6% din PIB-ul Romaniei in acest an.

Tonul crizei economice in 2017 in Romania a fost dat de vestea cumplita a faptului ca in ianuarie 2017 s-a inregistat o scadere de 33,94% a numarului de firme inregistrate conform datelor prezentate de Consiliul Intreprinderilor Mici si Mijlocii din Romania.

Se apreciaza ca in urma inrautatirii fara precedent a situatiei din tara intre, 1 si 2 milioane de romani vor  alege emigratia ca solutie de supravietuire.

Bugetul anului 2017 marcheza o noua etapa de agravare a crizei economice

Peisajul crizei economice in 2017 nu este reprezentat doar de trendul negativ al ultimilor ani, dar mai ales situatia este agravata de reducerea investitiilor interne si externe, singurele ce pot aduce crestere economica si bogatie.

 

Bugetul pentru 2017 garanteza scaderea economiei si continuarea crizei si arata haosul profund in care se afla politica economica guvernamentala.

Cu un buget prevazut cu un deficit record, cu inflatie ce distruge economiile populatiei si cu un sistem bancar gravat de ineficienta economica, tablou trist la care se adauga sirul de falimente al ultimelor luni , nu se ofera nicio sansa pentru crestere economica reala sau pentru proiecte de investitii majore, iar declinul real al economiei in acest an se va cifra intre 3 si 6% din PIB.

 

Ceea ce este dramatic si impacteaza stabilitatea economica este reducerea investitiilor la 1 miliard de euro, ceea ce lasa economia nationala la marginea supravieturii.

Trebuie sa tinem seama ca pentru a dezvolta si moderniza economia Romaniei si a o ajuta sa revina la nivelul pre-criza ar fi nevoie de investitii anuale de 20 de miliarde de euro anual.

Refacerea economiei se amana pentru 2050.

 

Daca tinem conta ca inainte de criza se prevedea ca economia Romaniei va reveni la nivelul anilor 1989, dinainte de revolutie, in jurul anilor 2025 acum situatia aceasta optimista nu mai poate fi prevazuta.

Acum economia nationala se afla la un nivel inferior a 25% din nivelul pre-revolutionar (1989), ceea ce face ca o perspectiva reala de revenire la nivelul pre-revolutie sa fie amanta pana in 2050.

Datoria externa ameninta stabilitatea economica a Romaniei.

 

Un factor ce ameninta cu sufocarea economiei romanesti este agravarea crizei datoriilor externe, astazi datoria de stat depaseste 36 de miliarde de dolari, iar impreuna cu cea privata ajunge la 105 de miliarde de dolari.

 

Desi situatia crizei datoriilor din Grecia, Irlanda, Spania sau Portugalia ar fi trebuit sa indemne la prudenta, Romania continua sa primesca imprumuturi destinate sprijinirii consumului si platii salariilor si pensiilor, in loc sa fie indreptate spre investitii economice directe si necesara modernizare industriala.

 

Daca adaugam la acesta nivelul de somaj, teribil, cu 15 %din populatia activa atinsa de diverse forme de somaj si cu inca 35% din populatie fara niciun sprijin financiar de la stat, Romania ajunge in varful listei statelor europene afectate de somaj, cu aproape 50% din populatie fara nicio sursa de venit si fara loc de munca.

Toate acestea se adauga la un nivel al saraciei fara precedent, ajungand la 70% din totalul populatiei, ceea ce ne ofera o imagine a situatie sociale tragice din Romania de astazi.

Concluzii:

Criza economica este departe de a fi finalizata cu bazele economiei si sistemul financiar-bancar grav afectat.

Criza economica va continua si se va agrava in 2017 si probabil si dupa 2017.

Economia va incepe drumul spre recuperare dupa 2020, ceea ce ne pune in fata recunoasterii unei decade pierdute pentru tara noastra, si trebuie clar subliniat ca revenirea economiei in 2020 nu este sigura, ci este o posibilitate ce depinde de politici economice corecte si concrete de sprijinire a economiei.

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2018 – ROMANIAN IN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. TWO MILLION ROMANIAN`S WILL CHOSE EXPATRIATION.

ROMANIA`S ECONOMY IN  2018: THE 10th  YEAR OF RECESSION

 

Friday, 10 March 2017, The Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation hosted a debate on the dire situation of the Romanian economy as revealed in the latest United Nations Expert Philip Alston report.

 

Romanian authorities are in denial over the poverty and crisis in the country-Philip Alston.

The regular economic study conference has united economical experts from Romania, European Parliament, managers and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

 

The most important topic was highlighting the negative effects of publicising doctored reports about Romanian economic development, reports that are having no bases in real economy and are reminiscent of the communist like distortions of economic figures.

 

Romanian economy is in deep crisis and poverty, and no amount of lies and propaganda can change this fact, and the latest popular revolt of January 2017 was triggered by these politic of economic lies, was the conclusion of the debate.

 

2009- 2016 –the world crisis and the long-lasting impact on Romanian economy.

 

Three hundred economists, bankers and economic journalists attended the economic conference.

 

The conference started with an evaluation of the first wave of impact of economic crisis in the recent period: 2009-2016.

 

Between 2009-2016 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued with huge levels of unemployment ad poverty.

 

Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was also strongly shaken.

In total the economic output of Romanian economy has gone down by 35%, unemployment around 40% of the working force and forced below poverty line over 65% of country population.

 

Romania: the most poverty striken country in Europe.

No economic growth, no jobs, no hope!

The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 to decrease further with margins between 2-3% in 2013 to 2016.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating, today we are below the 1996 level-the record law of Romanian economy.

Unfortunately, the economic collapse of 2012-2016 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2017.

2012-2016: The period of economic disaggregation of Romanian economy.

2012 and 2016 period will be remembered as the worst time of recent economic turmoil in Romania, was the conclusion voiced by all the experts at the gathering.

 

In 2015 and 2016 the Romanian economy had started to show signs of deep financial crisis.

 The banking and insurance system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point.

The inflation had resurfaced from January 2017 and the experts appreciate that a 20% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the fact that internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended, and this year the GDP will shrink by 3 to 6%.

 A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies succeeded only to aggravate the economic crisis.

 

Vox populi 2017: Hunger and poverty had engulfed Romania.

 

2017 – Maximum point of Romanian economic crisis.

 

The most worrisome factor in January 2017  is the information that: almost 700.000 Romanians are in financial bankruptcy according to National Bank estimate.

 

The 2017 will be a decisive year when Romanian society with almost 60% of population living below poverty line will be confronted by the ripple effects of European meltdown and world stagnant economy.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc.

 

In 2017 Romania will be affected by inflation rise, economic gaping deficit and in practice an economic shut down.

In January 2017 the number of economic actors and private factories registration has gone down by a whopping 33,94% announced National Council of Small and Middle Enterprises.

 

Practically we are speaking about economic shut down and devastating economic crisis that will see probably 1 to 2 million Romanians leaving the country in the next two years.

 

The spiraling down of economy will be affected by the decay in European economic activity, effects of anti-Russian sanction and the redraw of investors from the Eastern Europe markets in the aftermath of Greece and Hungary crisis.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain exit, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 3-6% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2017 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline.

 

It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level.

Any statements about a Romanian economic growth are unsubstantiated or bluntly laying.

On European level the forecasts are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , closed the argument the chief economist Mihail Raceanu.

It will be a miracle if we have in 2017 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2017 and 2022 to stop the decline and in 2025 to start the recovery.

2017 budget-A budget that will trigger a deeper economic crisis.

 

In 2017 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling luck of funding and investment but also with a budget of incredible largesse that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2017 budget is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The 2017 budget expected huge deficit is not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, inflation will destroy the country financial reserves and the individual savings as well and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economists around 3-6% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

 

Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 2 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for direct economic investment programs.

The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year.

 

The present day budget of 2017 is not only of severe economic chaos, but of severe contraction, stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economic recovery: postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

The economic recession will make it hard for Romanian economy to recuperate the last loses in the context of negative governmental involvement, high inflation, drastic increase in country debt, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke this year an economic decrease of more than 5% of GDP or even 8% of GDP after others opinions.

 

 

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2017, the foreign debt crisis.

The government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total: the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 105 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like: Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loans from private banks, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions.

This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates, will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Another gloomy factor is the unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 15% of the active population and with another 35% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aid, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 50% of the population.

This figure must be put in perspective with more than 60% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed.

Romania economy is in crisis and no plans for a future development had being adopted.

2017: The financial and banking crisis.

 

The conclusion of the most important economic experts in Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult phase that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s.

The economic crisis will continue until 2020 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025.

This decade will be, without a doubt, the lost decade of Romania, but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

 

The situation is made even worst by the fact that: Romanian leaders are in denial in regard to the social and economic crisis of the country as UN rapporteur Philip Alston stated.