VICTOR PONTA GOVERNMENT LEAVE`S ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN CRISIS AND TATTERS

ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN  2015: THE 8 YEAR OF RECESSION

 

Thursday, 19 November 2015 at the headquarter of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation has taken place the analyses of the dire situation of the Romanian economy as revealed in the latest United Nations preliminary assessment by Philip Alston.

The conference has united economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

The most important topic was highlighting the negative effects of publicising doctored report about Romanian economic development, reports that are having no bases in real economy and are reminiscent of the communist time distorsion of economic figures.

Romanian economy is in deep crisis and poverty, and no amount of lies and propaganda can change this fact, and the latest popular revolt was triggered by this official politic of economic lies, was the conclusion of the debate.

 

2009- 2014 –the first stage of world crisis and impact on Romanian economy.

Three hundred economists, bankers and economic journalists attended the economic conference.

The conference started with an evaluation of the first wave of impact of economic crisis in the recent period: 2009-2014.

 

In 2012-2014 the economist stated in a voice that: the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking.

Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down.

The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 to decrease further with margins between 2-3% in 2013 and 2014.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating, today we are below the 1996 level-the record law of Romanian economy.

Unfortunately, the economic collapse of 2012-2014 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2015.

2012-2014: The period of economic disaggregation of Romanian economy.

2012 and 2014 will be remembered as the worst years of recent economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

In 2013 and 2014 the Romanian economy had started to show signs of deep financial crisis.

 The banking and insurance system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the fact that internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended, all this factors had provoked for 2012-2014 a record economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions.

 A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies succeeded only to aggravate the economic crisis.

2016 – The maximum point of economic crisis.

 

The 2016 will be a decisive year when Romanian society with 70% of population living below poverty line will be confronted by the ripple effects of European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc.

 

In 2015 Romania was affected by the decay in European economic activity, effects of anti-Russian sanction and the redraw of investor from the Eastern Europe market in the aftermath of Greece and Hungary crisis.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had become a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2016 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline.

 

It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either are bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist Mihail Raceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2015 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2015 and 2019 to stop the decline and in 2020 to start the recovery.

2016 budget-A budget of economic crisis.

 

In 2015 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling luck of funding and investment but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2015 budget is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The 2016 budget expected deficit of 2, 1% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 3-6% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic, is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 1 billion euro investment planned for this year, the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability.

Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 2 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs.

The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year.

The present day budget of 2015 is not only of severe austerity, but of severe contraction, stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recovery post-poned to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

The economic recession will make it hard for Romanian economy to recuperate the last loses in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke this year an economic decrease of more than 5% of GDP or even 8% of GDP after others opinions.

 

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total: the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like: Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loans from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions.

This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates, will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Another gloomy factor is the unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 15% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aid, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 30% of the population.

This figure must be put in perspective with more that 70% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed.

Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had being adopted.

2015: The economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts in Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult phase that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s.

The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025.

This decade will be, without a doubt, the lost decade of Romania, but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

The situation is made even worst by the fact that: Romanian leaders are in denial in regard to the social and economic crisis of the country as UN rapporteur Philip Alston stated.

2015-AN YEAR OF ECONOMIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA

ROMANIAN ECONOMY HIT BY CRISES IN 2015: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA

Monday, 19 January 2015 at the headquarter of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation the first economic forecast conference for 2015 has taken place: The info date and prognosis of evolution of Romanian economy in crisis 2015. The aggravating crisis!

The conference has united economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2014 –the first stage of world crisis and impact on Romanian economy.

Three hundred economists, bankers and economic journalists attended the economic conference.

The conference started with an evaluation of the first wave of impact of economic crisis in the recent period: 2009-2014.

 

In 2012-2014 the economist stated in a voice that: the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking.

Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down.

The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 to decrease further with margins between 2-3% in 2013 and 2014.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating, today we are below the 1996 level-the record law of Romanian economy.

Unfortunately, the economic collapse of 2012-2014 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2015.

2012-2014: The period of economic disaggregation of Romanian economy.

2012 and 2014 will be remembered as the worst years of recent economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

In 2013 and 2014 the Romanian economy had started to show signs of deep financial crisis.

 The banking and insurance system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the fact that internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended, all this factors had provoked for 2012-2014 a record economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions.

 A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies succeeded only to aggravate the economic crisis.

2015 – The maximum point of economic crisis.

 

The 2015 will be a decisive year when Romanian society with 70% of population living below poverty line will be confronted by the ripple effects of European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc.

In 2015 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity, effects of anti-Russian sanction and the redraw of investor from the Eastern Europe market in the aftermath of Greece and Hungary crisis.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had become a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2015 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline.

 

It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either are bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist Mihail Raceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2015 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2015 and 2019 to stop the decline and in 2020 to start the recovery.

2015 budget-A budget of economic crisis.

 

In 2015 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling luck of funding and investment but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2015 budget is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 1% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 3-6% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic, is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 1 billion euro investment planned for this year, the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability.

Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 2 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs.

The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year.

The present day budget of 2015 is not only of severe austerity, but of severe contraction, stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

The economic recession will make it hard for Romanian economy to recuperate the last loses in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke this year an economic decrease of more than 5% of GDP or even 8% of GDP after others opinions.

 

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total: the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like: Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loans from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions.

This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates, will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Another gloomy factor is the unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 15% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aid, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 30% of the population.

This figure must be put in perspective with more that 70% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed.

Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had being adopted.

2015: The economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts in Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult phase that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s.

The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025.

This decade will be, without a doubt, the lost decade of Romania, but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

KAZAKHSTAN AMBASSADOR OFFICIAL GUEST AT INDAGRA 2014

On 1st of November 2014, the President General-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania – Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had made an on the spot information visit to Agricultural Exhibition INDAGRA 2014.

Professor Dr. Anton Caragea and Kazakhstan Ambassador Daulet Batrashev inspecting agricultural machineries at the Agricultural Fair-INDAGRA 2014

 

This year has brought about a plus of prestige, luster and representativeness for INDAGRA agricultural fair, had stated Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, clearly enthusiastic about the presence of a record number of countries to the event. At the venue where presented firms from 22 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, China, Korea (South), Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, India, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Great Britain, Moldavia, Holland, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Turkey, Hungary etc.

 

In order to offer new opportunities for Romanian economy Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had invited the Ambassador of Kazakhstan-Daulet Batrashev to accompany him during his visit to agricultural exhibition.

Kazakhstan is enjoying the greatest agricultural potential amongst the Central Asia region and can widely benefit from Romanian agricultural experience, from Romanian products and our state of the art technology and no other place is better illustrating thus enormous potential of our country than INDAGRA 2014 stated Professor Dr. Anton Caragea.

The visit started with a stopover at CASA PANCIU (HOUSE OF PANCIU)-the diplomatic partner and creator of DIPLOMATIC WINE OF ROMANIA for 2014-the best Romanian wine.

Tasting Romanian Diplomatic Wine for 2014 (from right to left): H.E. Kazakhstan Ambassador Daulet Batrashev, IRUCE PDG-Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, Mrs. Ioana Tudor-CASA PANCIU (HOUSE OF PANCIU) Director, CASA PANCIU (HOUSE OF PANCIU) somellier, Mr. Marian Nistor-HORECA developer for CASA PANCIU (HOUSE OF PANCIU).

At CASA PANCIU, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea and his guests could appreciate the new wines of 2014 harvest such as: Chardonnay variety (dry), Cabernet Sauvignon transformed onto white wine (dry) – the star of this year winery  production, Aligote (medium-dry), Şarba-Romanian specific variety (medium-dry), Rose made from Cabernet Sauvignon grapes) – dry, Cabernet Sauvignon & Feteasca Neagra 2012 (dry), as well a perfect Romanian variety as Feteasca Neagra(Black Girl) 2013.

 

Kazakhstan Ambassador had tasted the well-known and appreciated wines from HOUSE OF PANCIU and was in owe at the long-lasting taste, aroma and savory of the Vrancea wines, that are clearly surpassing celebrated wines from Italy or France and must be presented on the Kazakhstan market, where will find favor with the lovers and connoisseurs of fine and quality wines.

The visit had continued to the small and medium producers from Transylvania region and horse breeding stable from Sibiu County, where Professor Dr. Anton Caragea had highly appreciated the horses exhibited and Kazakhstan Ambassador had also related with his country traditions in the field of husbandry, horse farms and stables.

The delegation moved on and visited the ship farms from Marginimea Sibiului region where all present where interested in observing traditional milking and cheese production techniques from the region.

 

Professor Dr. Anton Caragea admiring the horse show put in place at INDAGRA 2014 Agricultural Fair.

 

INDAGRA 2014 had clearly marked a perfect opportunity for Romanian diplomacy to highlight for the world the high quality of Romanian food and agricultural industry products and to get the limelight for the traditional recipes that are transforming the Romanian food products in true symbols of perfect quality and taste, perfect for export.

The remarkable Romanian wine from HOUSE OF PANCIU-CASA PANCIU had already conquered the world and it is now the time that more and more agricultural products of our country to be promoted and recognized as veritable ambassadors of our nation in the world had concluded the President General Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation.

ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2013: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA

Economic forecast: Romanian economy in 2013. GDP, Inflation, Bankruptcy.

Wednesday 30 of January 2013 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2013: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2013. The aggravating crisis!

Beggars on the street of Romania: a sign of failed economic policy 

The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2012 –the first period of crisis.

The conference started with an evaluation of the impact of economic crisis in the last period: 2009-2012.

In 2009 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating that now we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010-2012 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2013.

Professor dr. Anton Caragea-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation chairing the romanian economist`s meeting.

2011-2012: The period of economic earthquake.

2011 and 2012 will be remembered as the worst years of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

First of all the 2011 has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

2013 – European economic crisis will impact hard on Romania.

The 2013 will be a decisive year to on how will be affected the Romanian economy by the European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc. In 2013 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had became a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2013 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either is bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist- Mihail Racaceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2013 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2013 and 2018 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis level.

Homeless and hungry in Great Britain. How EU crisis will affect Romania ?

2013 budget- a budget of economic decline.

In 2013 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling inflation but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2013 budget is the first budget in the eight year period that is not approved prior to 1-th of January, a negative record that is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 4% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 8-10% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 8 billion euro investment planned for this year the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability. Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 10 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs. The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year. He present day budget is not only of severe austerity but of severe contraction stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The resurgence of inflation will put a dramatic pressing on population economy and will make any recovery unthinkable for the next 1-2 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke next year an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis in the governmental incompetence that by: increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investor in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The Emil Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

In 2012 the Mihai Razvan Ungureanu government succeeded in just a few months to reduce the National bank Reserves by 20 billion euro, an unprecedented squandering of public money in Romanian history.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 12% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.

2013: The worsening of economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts of Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s. The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2012. ROMANIA IN DEEPENING CRISIS.

Monday 6 of February 2012 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2012: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2012.  The crisis will continue!

 The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

Another example of Romanian economic success : street beggars

 2009 and 2011 – first years of economic crisis.

 The conference started with an evaluation of economic crisis impact in the period of the first years: 2009, 2010 and 2011.

In the first year of the crisis in Romania -2009- the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories, collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.

 The decrease in our economy has being so devastating that we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010 and 2011 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2012 and 2013.

 2011- The year of economic earthquake.

 2011 will be remembered without a doubt as the year of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering. First of all the 2011has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 2-4 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

 2012 – between crisis and slowing down economy.

 The 2012 will be a decisive year to slow down the economic collapse or to direct the economy in a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying either is bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass in the period of economic crisis the France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , declared laughing Mihail Racaceanu – chief economist. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2012 a decrease in economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2012 and 2015 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis year of 2007 and in 2050 at the pre-revolutionary level of 1989.

 In 2050 the Romanian economy will reach the level of 1989 as a historic economic reference year.

 This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of nongovernmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

 External debt will plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

 The factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

But this perspective is an unrealistically  one as President Traian Basescu has announced new external loans for 2012 , that will surely bring Romania to being incapable to pay the foreign debt. Despite the writing on the wall in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in pay offs for next parliamentary and presidential elections’. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 10% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide Romania tops all the EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.

 

2012: The economic crisis is worsening.

 The conclusions of the most important economic experts of Romania where clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundaments. The economic crisis will continue until 2015 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2020. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2020.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

STATE OF THE WORLD FORECAST  REPORT FOR 2011 by PROFESSOR ANTON CARAGEA PhD,MA, FINS

It is in human nature to search for answers regarding the shaping of the future. It is a natural impulse that today science is offering a response by such disciplines as futurology and political science. 2011 it is in many respects just a continuation of 2010 evolution in economy and foreign affairs and is creating the path for 2012 when new and decisive election will be held in United States, Russia and across the world.

Homeless in United States: a common faith for 10 million people.

The economic crisis will worsen.

A regular companion of world economy in the last 3 years was the economic crisis. The crisis that unlashed over United States in 2007 and soon consumed the all world. 2011 will be still a year of the crisis. United States fails to be the engine for recovery in economy is fighting a record public deficit of   over 14 trillion dollars, more than 47 million americans living below poverty line and consumer confidence hitting record low. In politics a time and resource consuming battle between democrats and republicans in Congress and a paralyzed presidency of a crippled Barrack Obama , all this show that United States are far away not only from any recovery chance,  but also for a stagnation that will be more favorable that the present day gloomy economic outlook.

European Union is also confronting severely battled economy .Public record deficits in Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal (famous PIGS of European economy) are hindering EU image as an economic powerhouse. France and Great Britain are far from being out of recession and Germany fantastic growth figures are regularly downgraded, making a shame of the famous German punctuality and honesty. Germany has long receded from being the leader and acumen of Europe to be the problem child of Europe economy. With record deficits, rampant inflation, record dropping life standards, Germany is looking set in becoming the next bailout candidate of Europe not the pillar of Europe recovery.

India and China also experienced a halt in their record growth figures and 2011 will see this figures rapidly diminished. China economy ,  is growing now only on internal market demand at the expense of here competitivity  . Growing salaries and improving life conditions in China are surely positive news for Chinese people, but this is reflecting in a 35% increase in Chinese products prices in 2010. These tendencies will continue in 2011 and will reduce Chinese goods appeal in the world market.   China and India are not in the position to drag alone the world economy out of the precipice.   The economic crisis is here to stay in the next five years.

Pressure on China .

The most interesting political game of 2011 will be the cat and mouse game that Washington is playing with Beijing. In 2010 Washington wanted China`s alignment on anti-Iran resolution in the Security Council. It was enough for United States to play the economic card, agitating measures such as nominating China as a currency manipulator and imposing unilateral economic sanctions for China to back down and to support the US sponsored resolution in United Nations Security Council. In late 2010 when United States decided on a show of force on China Sea, at the door step of China, it was enough to describe China as a menace for the Far East region and to support Japan military resurgence for China to back down. It was reportedly that the December military exercises held by South Korea and US in East China Sea have being proven so efficient that China was put on a defensive posture.

In 2011 China will face new decisions: a new anti-Iran resolution that is drafted by US and will be put before Security Council in the spring of 2011, clearing the way for a military action against Iran. If China joins this resolution, his stance in the third world as an alternative power to United States and an agent of multilateralism will fade away definitively. Also United States are decided to support South Korea pressure against  North Korea, pressure that will be efficiently only if China goes on board. In a word China is confronted  in 2011  with the same decision as in 2010: should it be content with the stature of a middle power, as Great Britain or France ,and take care of his regional agenda or maintaining a great power profile embarks himself in a confrontation policy with United States ? Regional politics or big player, this is the alternative that Beijing is had to make.

Iran: new sanctions.

In December 2010 after failed talks, Iran and P+5 decided on a last ditch attempt in January 2011 to lift up the dialogue in Istanbul on Iranian nuclear issue. The rift between the parties is clearer than ever: Iran hold us up to his right on peaceful nuclear development while United States is determined to see Iranian nuclear program dismantled. Under this conditions is not difficult to predict the failure of the talks. United States have  already drafted a resolution, clearly laying out the path for military action against Teheran. Last year Russia and China with Brazil and Turkey intercession, succeeded to amend the draft, excluding the key phrase of -by every dint necessary. This year Russia will not oppose this green light for military action , while China stance is yet unclear. The battle around this new United Nations resolution will be undoubtedly the main diplomatic event of 2011.

Putin and Medvedev: a love-hate relation ?

Russia: fight for power.

In Russia the power struggle between the make shift President, Dimitry Medvedev and his benefactor, omnipotent prime-minister Vladimir Putin, is taking epic  and opera type proportions. Until now the battle between President  and Prime Minister was held on the streets of Moscow ,where Kremlin backed supporters tacking  to the streets against the Prime Minister administration. This battle in the street was won by Medvedev, that obtain on grounds of police brutality against manifestant`s, the removal of Putin rock-stone allied, Yuri Rajkov, mayor of Moscow. With the battle for Moscow won, Medvedev started two more fronts: a public offensive against the corruption and inefficiency of Putin government and on the world stage a battle for a new Russia image. Inflaming the rage of Putin, Dimitry Medvedev launches his new vision on Lisbon Treaty backstage. A Russia led by Medvedev ,without the omnipresent Putin , will support US efforts in controlling Iran and China , will assure a steady supply of raw materials to US and Europe economy and will request only a regional influence. Medvedev went as far as asserting that Russia relations with Georgia could be massively improved.    As naturally US and Europe force pledge support for the democratic vision of President Medvedev in contrast with authoritarian past of Russia, a diplomatic phrase describing Vladimir Putin policies. Vladimir Putin opera style response: in Sankt Petersburg a giant show on Christmas with him as a super star, congratulated as the greatest man that ever lived by Alain Delon, Sharon Stone, Kurt Russell and Gerard Depardieu. The star of the show-Putin even made a public performance and sings on the piano. 40 millions Russian have watch the show live on television. Score 1-1 for Putin.  The battle for Russia will be another interesting event of 2011.

Israel: a new aggression?

For Tel Aviv 2011 is starting under negative auspices: a frozen relation with White House after the illegal settlements build on Palestinian soil continued controversy and Barrack Obama support for an independent Palestinian state. The Israel international isolation after Mavi Marmara attack in international waters and Turkeys movement to isolate the hebrew state and illegal Gaza blockade made even European Union to start swaying away from Israel position.  After all this failures Benyamin Netanyahu extreme right government has only one solution to galvanize public opinion on his side: a new conflict either by unleashing a new attack on Gaza or on Lebanon. In 2010 Israel violated daily Lebanon air space, sponsored spy infiltration rings in the Cedar country and created a strong pressure to further weaken the country. But anew attack on Lebanon risk to alienate even further the western supporters of Israel and the lessons of 2006 defeat of Israeli military at the hands of Hezbollah is not easy forgotten. In Gaza ,also Hamas has survived blockade and daily attack by Israel in 2010 and even grow in popularity and capitalized on the international humanitarian effort for the people of Gaza in 2010. Gaza is a more labile target; with light weaponry could not stand efficiently against Israel war machine. But a small military victory will compensate the political storm that such an attack will unleash? Benyamin Netanyahu seems to think that this wage worth tacking it.

Savage german police brutality images.

Europe: fight for democratic system.

Europe is having a lot of problems to sort off in 2011. The economic crisis that is engulfing the continent is already described. Another ugly head that is appearing on the continent is sectarian divisions. Nobody forgets the Switzerland vote in banning minarets, the France ban on Muslim scarf, the closing of hundreds of mosques in Europe in the last year and the vicious attack on Tony Blair sister in law that converted to Islam and was nearly to be killed by British extremists. These anti-minority events will repeat and inflammatory statements like Angela Merkel opinion that multiculturalism have failed will support this kind of attacks. Europe is having in this moment more than 40% of population living below poverty line of 500 euro’s per month , increase unemployment’s ,  social and cultural amenities incapable in supporting European population needs, a medical system in grip and a deficit of democracy. As states are finding difficult to cope with this problems an easy escape is the time old remedy of anti-immigration rhetoric.

After being championship of democracy in the last 50 years, European democratic system is starting to show his wrinkles.  Great Britain police resulted to argentine style suppression of mass student demonstration in December 2010 against tuition fees rise. In France against anti-pension reform demonstrators were halted by armed forces and in Germany government resorted to pointing out in a 30`s style the immigration and failed multiculturalism as the culprits behind economy collapsed. The fight for maintaining a viable and democratic system in Europe is a difficult one that 2011 will just be a step.