2015-AN YEAR OF ECONOMIC CRISIS IN ROMANIA

ROMANIAN ECONOMY HIT BY CRISES IN 2015: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA

Monday, 19 January 2015 at the headquarter of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation the first economic forecast conference for 2015 has taken place: The info date and prognosis of evolution of Romanian economy in crisis 2015. The aggravating crisis!

The conference has united economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2014 –the first stage of world crisis and impact on Romanian economy.

Three hundred economists, bankers and economic journalists attended the economic conference.

The conference started with an evaluation of the first wave of impact of economic crisis in the recent period: 2009-2014.

 

In 2012-2014 the economist stated in a voice that: the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking.

Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down.

The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011 to decrease further with margins between 2-3% in 2013 and 2014.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating, today we are below the 1996 level-the record law of Romanian economy.

Unfortunately, the economic collapse of 2012-2014 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2015.

2012-2014: The period of economic disaggregation of Romanian economy.

2012 and 2014 will be remembered as the worst years of recent economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

In 2013 and 2014 the Romanian economy had started to show signs of deep financial crisis.

 The banking and insurance system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the fact that internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended, all this factors had provoked for 2012-2014 a record economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions.

 A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies succeeded only to aggravate the economic crisis.

2015 – The maximum point of economic crisis.

 

The 2015 will be a decisive year when Romanian society with 70% of population living below poverty line will be confronted by the ripple effects of European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc.

In 2015 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity, effects of anti-Russian sanction and the redraw of investor from the Eastern Europe market in the aftermath of Greece and Hungary crisis.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had become a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2015 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline.

 

It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either are bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist Mihail Raceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2015 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2015 and 2019 to stop the decline and in 2020 to start the recovery.

2015 budget-A budget of economic crisis.

 

In 2015 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling luck of funding and investment but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2015 budget is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 1% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 3-6% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic, is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 1 billion euro investment planned for this year, the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability.

Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 2 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs.

The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year.

The present day budget of 2015 is not only of severe austerity, but of severe contraction, stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

The economic recession will make it hard for Romanian economy to recuperate the last loses in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke this year an economic decrease of more than 5% of GDP or even 8% of GDP after others opinions.

 

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total: the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like: Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loans from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions.

This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates, will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Another gloomy factor is the unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 15% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aid, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 30% of the population.

This figure must be put in perspective with more that 70% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed.

Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had being adopted.

2015: The economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts in Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult phase that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s.

The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025.

This decade will be, without a doubt, the lost decade of Romania, but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

2015-CRIZA ECONOMICA IN ROMANIA SE AGRAVEAZA

In data de 19 ianuarie 2015, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica a gazduit prima conferinta de prognoza economica a anului 2015, prezentand datele statistice, prognozele si evolutia economiei romanesti in 2015, sub impactul crizei economice mondiale ce se agraveaza.

 

Trei sute de economisti, bancheri si oameni de afaceri au dezbatut prabusirea economiei romanesti in 2015

 

Conferinta a inceput cu o evaluare a impactului crizei economice din ultimii ani asupra peisajului economic.

Astfel, in perioada anilor 2012-2014 criza a afectat zone vitale ale vietii economice precum: industria materialelor de constructii, piata imobiliara si piata industriei grele, apoi in faza a doua, criza sistemului de asigurari si a sistemului bancar a devenit vizibila, cu reduceri ale PIB-ului cifrate intre 10% in 2010, 8% in 2011 si o scadere anuala in perioada 2014 si 2014 de 3%.

Din nefericire aceste elemente ale crizei au pus bazele unei noi perioade de scadere economica in 2015.

Perioada anilor 2012 -2014 va fi fara indoiala privita drept cea mai neagra din istoria recenta a economiei romanesti au apreciat in unanimitate economistii.

Sectoarele de productie si cele bancare si de asigurari au fost sever lovite, ceea ce a fragilizat economia nationala dincolo de punctul de rezistenta, ceea ce face recuperarea inimaginabila mai devreme de patru pana la opt ani.

Reducerea creditarii interne, a investitiilor externe si a investitiilor interne au facut ca scaderea record a PIB-ului sa atinga 15% pana la 18% cumulat, in ultima perioada.

Un factor agravant a fost politica incompetenta a guvernelor din ultimii trei ani, politici publice ce au incurajat haosul legislativ, cresterea taxelor la nivele insuportabile si politica deliberata de supra-impozitare si distrugere a clasei de mijloc, toate au pus bazele acestei crize profunde, de sistem.

 

2015-anul maxim al crizei.

Cu peste 70% din populatie traind sub limita pragului de saracie, Romania va trebui sa primeasca socul din plin al crizei europene si efectele sale.

Pana acum economia romaneasca a fost lovita de propriile sale probleme: competitivitate redusa, productivitate minima, haos politic guvernamental, inflatie galopanta, lipsa de investitii interne si externe.

De acum, in anul 2015, la acesti factori interni se vor  adauga factori externi precum: efectele sanctiunilor impotriva Rusiei, economia taratoare a Frantei si a Marii Britanii, criza economica europeana si efectele crizei din Grecia si Ungaria, ceea ce reduce apetitul pentru investitii in estul Europei.

Efectele combinate ale acestor crize vor duce la o reducere cu 2% pana la 3% din PIB-ul Romaniei in acest an.

Cei care prezinta date, conform carora economia Romaniei va depasi economia Germaniei sau a Frantei in crestere economica, nu fac decat sa spuna povesti nemuritoare contrazise de realitatea economica: suntem in criza, a apreciat Mihail Raceanu, refacerea reala a economiei romanesti va avea loc prin anii 2020 a concluzionat economistul sef.

Bugetul anului 2015 marcheza o noua criza economica

Peisajul crizei economice in 2015 nu este reprezentat doar de trendul negativ al ultimilor ani, dar mai ales situatia este agravata de reducerea investitiilor interne si externe, singurele ce pot aduce crestere economica si bogatie.

Bugetul pentru 2015 garanteza scaderea economiei si continuarea crizei si arata haosul care a atins politica guvernamentala.

Cu un buget prevazut cu un deficit de 2,1% din PIB, nu se ofera nicio sansa pentru crestere economica reala sau pentru proiecte de investitii majore, iar declinul real al economiei in acest an se va cifra intre 3 si 6% din PIB.

Ceea ce este dramatic si impacteaza stabilitatea economica este reducerea investitiilor la 1 miliard de euro, ceea ce lasa economia nationala la marginea supravieturii.

Trebuie sa tinem seama ca pentru a dezvolta si moderniza economia Romaniei si a o ajuta sa revina la nivelul pre-criza ar fi nevoie de investitii anuale de 20 de miliarde de euro anual.

Refacerea economiei se amana pentru 2050.

 

Daca tinem conta ca inainte de criza se prevedea ca economia Romaniei va reveni la nivelul anilor 1989, dinainte de revolutie, in jurul anilor 2025 acum situatia aceasta optimista nu mai poate fi prevazuta.

Acum economia nationala se afla la aproape 25% din nivelul pre-revolutinar (1989), ceea ce face ca o perspectiva reala de revenire la nivelul pre-revolutie sa fie amanta pana in 2050.

Datoria externa ameninta stabilitatea economica a Romaniei.

 

Un factor ce ameninta cu sufocarea economiei romanesti este agravarea crizei datoriilor externe, astazi datoria de stat depaseste 36 de miliarde de dolari, iar impreuna cu cea privata ajunge la 96 de miliarde de dolari.

Desi situatia crizei datoriilor din Grecia, Irlanda, Spania sau Portugalia ar fi trebuit sa indemne la prudenta, Romania continua sa primesca imprumuturi destinate sprijinirii consumului si platii salariilor si pensiilor, in loc sa fie indreptate spre investitii economice directe si necesara modernizare industriala.

Daca adaugam la acesta nivelul de somaj, teribil, cu 15 %din populatia activa atinsa de diverse forme de somaj si cu inca 15% din populatie fara niciun sprijin financiar de la stat, Romania ajunge in varful listei statelor europene afectate de somaj, cu aproape 30% din populatie fara nicio sursa de venit si fara loc de munca.

Toate acestea se adauga la un nivel al saraciei fara precedent, ajungand la 70% din totalul populatiei, ceea ce ne ofera o imagine a situatie sociale tragice din Romania de astazi.

Concluzii:

Criza economica este departe de a fi finalizata cu bazele economiei si sistemul financiar-bancar grav afectat.

Criza economica va continua pana in 2017 si probabil dupa 2017 economia va incepe drumul spre recuperare, ceea ce ne pune in fata recunoasterii unei decade pierdute pentru tara noastra, si trebuie clar subliniat ca revenirea economiei in 2017 nu este sigura, ci este o posibilitate ce depinde de politici economice corecte si concrete de sprijinire a economiei.

D.P.R. KOREA AMBASSADOR IS WARMLY GREETED IN BUCHAREST

On 13 of January 2015 a welcoming and protocol meeting in the honor of the new Ambassador of D.P.R.Koreea-H.E. Ri Kwang IL has taken place and reuniting a group of Romanian personalities from academic, diplomatic, parliamentary and business community.

Prof. Dr. Anton Caragea, President Director-General of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation express his heart-felt congratulation on the occasion of beginning of mandate of H.E. Ri Kwang IL, appreciating that between Romanian and D.P.R.Korea we can observe a large area of common interests, designed to forge a good understanding between the two nations.

Romanian personalities from academic, diplomatic, parliamentary and business community are greeting new D.P.R.Korea ambassador-H.E. Ri Kwang IL.

 

The Romania D.P.R.Korea relationship must be an example for a better relation between Romania and Far Eastern countries; this was the unanimous assessment of the representatives of Romanian parliament, business community and foreign relation experts.

In the last period the bilateral dialogue, especially on economic cooperation with this area was faltering, but now it is an auspicious moment for reconstructing and rebuilding this framework of dialogue and friendship.

Ambassador Ri Kwang IL had expressed his appreciation for the encouragement`s offered by Prof.Dr.Anton Caragea and had stated that: the vision of developing and fostering new economic, politic and cultural relations between the two nations is a shared vision.

The dialogue had continued on concrete aspects and analyses of economic, political and cultural bilateral relations and on ways of fostering this dialogue on to the future.

The emphasis must be placed on presenting, to an international and Romanian audience, the high-class Korean products, to register them in international competitions for promotion and international recognition and fostering also cultural connection and presenting in international forums cultural creation like Korean Celadon, Mansundae studio pictures and presenting the high level sky resort of Masikryong to the tourism community.

Especially important was the common analysis of the region problems and evolution`s and the shared vision in a peaceful Korean peninsula, living in peace and development, a vision that drive`s D.P.R.Korea and Romania towards cooperation with a mutual goal.

The dialogue led the foundations of a successful diplomatic mandate and fostering the relations between Romanian and D.P.R.Korea and constitutes a promise for re-launching a Romanian diplomatic action in the nearest future.

AMBASADORUL R.P.D. COREEA PRIMIT CU CALDURA LA BUCURESTI

In data de 13 ianuarie 2015, noul ambasador al Republicii Populare Democrate Coreea-E.S. Ri Kwang IL a fost intampinat de catre reprezentantii comunitatii academice,diplomatice, parlamentare si de afaceri din Romania.

La intampinarea noului ambasador, Prof.Dr.Anton Caragea, Presedintele Director General al Institutului de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare a prezentat felicitarile sale  cu ocazia inceperii mandatului domnului Ri Kwang IL , apreciind ca intre Romania si R.P.D. Coreea exista o larga arie de interese comune, menite a garanta o buna intelegere intre cele doua tari.

Noul ambasador al Republicii Populare Democrate Coreea-E.S. Ri Kwang IL a fost intampinat de catre reprezentantii comunitatii academice,diplomatice, parlamentare si de afaceri din Romania.

Toti cei prezenti au subliniat dorinta lor ca relatia intre Romania si R.P.D. Coreea sa fie un exemplu pentru relatia intre Romania si zona Extremului orient.

Daca in ultimii ani dialogul bilateral si in special cooperarea economica au stagnat, acum exista momentul propice pentru reluarea acestuia si dezvoltarea lui, au considerat reprezentantii parlamentului si ai comunitatii de afaceri din Romania.

Excelenta Sa Ambasadorul Ri Kwang IL a apreciat incurajarile venite din partea Prof. Dr. Anton Caragea  si a apreciat ca viziunea din partea coreeana este similara: Romania trebuie sa isi ocupe: economic, cultural si politic locul privilegiat in relatia cu R.P.D. Coreea.

Dialogul a continuat pe teme concrete, de analiza a relatiilor economice, politice si culturale intre cele doua tari si a metodelor practice de dezvoltare a acestora in viitor.

De o deosebita importanta a fost analiza comuna a posibilitatilor de cooperare economica, de participare a produselor din R.P.D. Coreea  la competitiile de profil gazduite de Romania, promovarea acestora in plan romanesc si international, dar si intensificarea relatiilor culturale prin prezentarea pentru publicul din Romania a celadonului din R.P.D. Coreea, a picturilor de la studioul Mansundae si promovarea turistica a proiectului de ski Masikryong.

Viziunea comuna a unei zone a pacii, in peninsula coreeana, este un alt element ce impinge R.P.D. Coreea si Romania spre cooperare, au apreciat partile.

Dialogul a pus bazele  unei mandat de succes pentru dezvoltarea relatiei intre Romania R.P.D. Coreea si promite relansarea unei directii de actiune diplomatica a Romaniei.

EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON TOURISM AND TRADE MARKS THE START OF 2015-DEVELOPMENT YEAR

The European Council on Tourism and Trade marks the opening of the first ever European Development Year in 2015, an opportunity to bring development related subjects to public attention such as EU countries role and responsibilities, as  European Union Member State, as part of global development and poverty eradication efforts.

Thus, for the European Year for Development 2015, the European Council on Tourism and Trade  intends to undertake, jointly with its partners, information activities for European citizens concerning international cooperation for global development and its importance.

European Council on Tourism and Trade is also considering promoting institutional contributions within the European Union towards world development and stimulating active interest and involvement of European citizens in action devoted to diminishing poverty in the world.

During the European Year for Development 2015, the European Council on Tourism and Trade will continue to promote his main diplomatic agenda in domains such as: tourism as a tool for development, good governance, strengthening democracy and the rule of law, economic development, diplomatic tourism, education, health and environment protection.

The European Council on Tourism and Trade  supports solidarity with developing states by a responsible, results – oriented foreign policy, and an integrated, coordinated approach to assistance for development at global level.

This is the first European Year devoted to a relevant area of European Union foreign policy and its role in the world context.