Centrul Diplomatic/Diplomatic Center

Centrul de Studii Politice si Diplomatie/ Center for Political Science and Diplomacy

ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2013: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA

Economic forecast: Romanian economy in 2013. GDP, Inflation, Bankruptcy.

Wednesday 30 of January 2013 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2013: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2013. The aggravating crisis!

cersetori

Beggars on the street of Romania: a sign of failed economic policy 

The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2012 –the first period of crisis.

The conference started with an evaluation of the impact of economic crisis in the last period: 2009-2012.

In 2009 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating that now we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010-2012 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2013.

Discutii inainte de conferintaProfessor dr. Anton Caragea-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation chairing the romanian economist`s meeting.

2011-2012: The period of economic earthquake.

2011 and 2012 will be remembered as the worst years of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

First of all the 2011 has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

2013 – European economic crisis will impact hard on Romania.

The 2013 will be a decisive year to on how will be affected the Romanian economy by the European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc. In 2013 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had became a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2013 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either is bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist- Mihail Racaceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2013 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2013 and 2018 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis level.

homelessin London

Homeless and hungry in Great Britain. How EU crisis will affect Romania ?

2013 budget- a budget of economic decline.

In 2013 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling inflation but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2013 budget is the first budget in the eight year period that is not approved prior to 1-th of January, a negative record that is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 4% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 8-10% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 8 billion euro investment planned for this year the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability. Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 10 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs. The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year. He present day budget is not only of severe austerity but of severe contraction stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The resurgence of inflation will put a dramatic pressing on population economy and will make any recovery unthinkable for the next 1-2 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke next year an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis in the governmental incompetence that by: increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investor in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The Emil Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

In 2012 the Mihai Razvan Ungureanu government succeeded in just a few months to reduce the National bank Reserves by 20 billion euro, an unprecedented squandering of public money in Romanian history.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 12% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.

2013: The worsening of economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts of Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s. The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

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January 31, 2013 Posted by | Academia de Stiinte Medicale, African affairs, Al Quds, Astana, Bashar Al Assad, Bertrand Russell Tribunal, Blackseanews Agency, Cold War, Communism, Comunitatea Musulmana din Romania, Corcova Roy&Damboviceanu, Coreea, Damascus, Danube Delta, Diplomacy, Diplomatie, Eastern Europe, Ecology, Economia Romaniei, Economy, Educatie, Emomali Rahmon, Environment, European Council on International Relations, Fidel Castro, Foreign policy, Forumul Ecologistilor din Romania, G20 Summit, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, History, Hugo Chavez, Ierusalim - Al Quds, Informatii despre Coreea, Information on Korea, Informations, Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, International Relation, Islam, Kazahstan, Kazakhstan, Kazakstan, Korea, Latin America, Leaders, Macedonia, Maramures County, Mass media, Medical Tourism, Ministerul Afacerilor Externe, News, Nigeria National Day, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Open Letter, Orient, Oriental Art, OSCE-Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Palestine, Piata imobiliara, Politica externa a Romaniei, Politics, PREMIUL PENTRU VOCATIA COOPERARII INTERNATIONALE, President Bashar Al Assad, Real Eastate, Relatii Internationale, Religion, Romanian economy, Romanian Foreign Policy, Romanian Revolution, Russia, Travel, Turism, Turkmenistan, Uncategorized, UNESCO Heritage List, United Arab Emirates, United Nations Global Compact, United States, Universitati, Universities, Venezuela, War Crimes, WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION AWARD, World Cup, World Social Forum | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BREAKING NEWS-MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD WINS IRAN ELECTIONS

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD WINS IRAN ELECTIONS.

QUESTIONS ON LEGITIMICY OF ELECTIONS

mahmoud-ahmadinejad

 

Iranian News National Agency announced that President Ahmadinejad is the clear winner of the presidential poll in Iran. With a great majority in the rural area and a balanced results in the city area Ahmadinejad wins a new 4-year term and a legitimacy of his policies on foreign affairs. More than 70% of the iranian population was present to vote and gives a huge victory to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The final results had appeared, with a huge turnout of more than 85% and a conclusive 61% percent victory Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the new president of Islamic Republic of Iran, his main adversary Mr. Mir Hussein Musavi obtained only 31% percent of the vote despite hopping a better results because of the massive turnout.

The vote is the expression of the Iranians desire in constructing a powerful Iran with a leading role in the Middle East.

Unfortunately the vote was not supervised by international observer so is impossible to verify claims on vote rigging or to give an acceptance to the vote. The votes remain under question and Iran democratic legitimacy under balance as well. All the tense atmosphere in Teheran, vote rigging claims and violence’s could have being avoided only by inviting foreign observers , a vote that is not under international observer control is subject to serious questions. Iran has missed an important opportunity in establishing a record as a country with free elections.

June 12, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

POPE VISIT TO HOLY LAND by Anton Caragea

POPE VISIT TO HOLY LAND

FORGING A NEW RELATION BETWEEN CHRISTIANITY AND ISLAM

 Desert or promise land

Pope visit to Holy Land (Jordan, Israel, Syria and Lebanon) marks an important step toward building a new relation between Christianity and Islam. After the last 10 years when the war in Iraq and the tensions between Israel and Palestine had soured relations  among Christian and Islamic community the two weeks visit of Pope Benedict XVI promise to transform radically this views of clash of civilizations.

The end of clash of civilizations.

One of the most important reasons of Pope visit to Holy Land is to symbolic mark the end of the clash of civilization theory that prophecies’ an imminent clash between Christianity and Islam. By itself the program of Pope visit gives a new definition of Holy land that is no longer just Israel but Jordan, Syria and Lebanon as well, all marked by Christianity and Islam become now the new and correct frontier of the Holy Land. The greater Holy Land of Pope Benedict is speaking by itself about the dialog of civilization and shared faith and community between Christian and Islam in the Middle East.

Geopolitics and faith in Pope visit.

Not only history is going in this direction, today geopolitics realities are lighting the same way. Today Christianity and Islam are sharing the energy reserves and the energy market of Europe and Middle East and are involved in controlling the strategic vital area of Mediterranean Sea and Middle East. Also in Europe is getting birth a community of more the 40 million Muslims which must adapt to their presence in a predominant Christian society an also in Middle East is a strong and historically viable community of more the 18 millions Christians that must have a life in a majority Muslim countries. So regarding at this realities Christianity and Islam are condemned to work together for creating a new life for Islamic community in Europe and for Christians in the   Middle East.

The end of confrontational vision

At the speech in Al Hussein Mosque in Amman Pope Benedict XVI  announce the end of the vision of a confrontation between Islam and Christianity. Pope Benedict stress on the long connection between Islam and Christianity and the fact that Islam is the only religion that recommends to his followers to have friendship relations with Christians. In Quran, the word of Allah, Muslims are recommended to have Christian friends because the will be more sympathetic with Muslims because they have monks and are humble. Also Quran have a sura dedicated to Holy Virgin Mary and to Jesus (Sura of family of Imran) and Jesus, John the Baptist are regarded as prophets and models for Islamic community and in Hadith (Words and action of Prophet Mohammed) Jesus will marked the coming of the end of days and Prophet Mohammed confess that Jesus is among the prophets the most closes to him. In the light of all this Quranic and Islamic testimony to create the image of a confrontation between Islamic and Christianity is false. Also the Pope declared in his trip to Christians that is having a profound respect for Islam.

 

Voices of discontent.

The new message of Pope Benedict XVI is making a lot of persons that took advantage of the confrontational vision of two major religions unsatisfied. Radical Islamic organization tried to play on the fear of crusades and Christian offensive and they wanted to poison the atmosphere of papal visit spreading   rumors about Christian’s missions in Afghanistan trying to convert Muslims. But the radicals have no success in this spread of lies and the Afghanistan controversy did not match the cartoon controversy. In Israel also fearing closer ties between Christianity and Islam the far right extremist menace to protest violently and disrupt Papal visit .Until now all this attempts have failed a prove that on both shores of Mediterranean sea the vision of clash o civilization has collapsed and a new dialog between Christianity and Islam will resolved many of the frozen conflicts of the region promising a new era of downfall of radicals in the Middle East. The time of cooperation has begun.

Professor Anton Caragea MA, FINS, PhD

May 10, 2009 Posted by | Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Travel, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Thailanda-destinatie periculoasa / Thailanda-more dangerous then Iraq

Ministerul Afacerilor Externe din Romania avertizeaza contra deplasarilor in Thailanda

APTOPIX Thailand Political Unrest

1. Există factori confirmaţi de risc – evitaţi deplasările care nu sunt necesare!

Situaţia din Thailanda, în special în capitala Bangkok, a redevenit periculoasă ca urmare a reizbucnirii valului de proteste antiguvernamentale, existând riscul să se deterioreze rapid.

Vă sfătuim să evitaţi deplasările ce nu sunt necesare în Thailanda.

În cazul în care este necesar să vă deplasaţi în Thailanda, vă recomandăm să evitaţi călătoriile în zonele în care se găsesc manifestanţi precum şi deplasarea prin Bangkok.
2. Contactarea autorităţilor române

Dacă sunteţi nevoit să vă deplasaţi în această ţară sau vă aflaţi deja pe teritoriul său, vă recomandăm să vă adresaţi Ambasadei României în Thailanda şi să vă anunţaţi prezenţa în regiune.

În acest fel puteţi fi contactat rapid şi eficient pentru a vi se acorda asistenţă consulară în cazul unor situaţii de urgenţă.


3. Alte recomandări
 Attention against traveling to Thailand

Protestele antiguvernamentale din Bangkok au devenit extrem de violente, mai ales în jurul clădirilor guvernamentale. Autoturismele cu însemnele Guvernului sunt atacate de manifestanţi.

De asemenea, au fost înregistrate manifestaţii antiguvernamentale şi în regiunea Pattaya, precum şi în jurul capitalei Bangkok. Vă sfătuim să evitaţi călătoriile în aceste zone.

Vă recomandăm să evitaţi călătoriile care nu sunt necesare în regiunile Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat şi Songkhla.

Există, în continuare, posibilitatea unor atacuri teroriste, care pot avea loc în orice regiune a ţării.

Vă recomandăm să evitaţi orice deplasare pe timpul nopţii, indiferent de zona în care vă aflaţi.

Vă recomandăm cu insistenţă să vă încheiaţi asigurare medicală şi de călătorie în cazul în care sunteţi nevoit să vă deplasaţi în Thailanda.  


4. Condiţii de călătorie

În cazul în care sunteţi nevoit să vă deplasaţi în Thailanda, vă recomandăm să citiţi “Condiţiile de călătorie” şi să urmăriţi în permanenţă site-ul MAE.

 

THAILAND IS MORE DANGEROUS THEN IRAQ

We wish to remember to all those who are preparing a travel to Thailand that crime rate, kidnapping and violence against tourist has increase 300% in the last year.

A  travel to Thailand  it is an incalculable risk. Tourists heading to Thailand face the highest risk of suffering traffic accidents, theft or food poisoning, a survey has said.

The survey was compiled by Norwich Union Travel Insurance. Dawn McMullan, travel product manager at Norwich Union, said: “Our research shows that you need to take a little extra care in certain countries and of course make sure you are adequately covered by travel insurance.”
The survey was based on more than 60,000 claims made to Norwich Union in 2005. The conclusion of the study : Thailand is at this moment more dangerous then Iraq.

May 3, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Mass media, News, Politics, Travel, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment