Centrul Diplomatic/Diplomatic Center

Centrul de Studii Politice si Diplomatie/ Center for Political Science and Diplomacy

Honduras coup d’état: will Latin America return to era of military dictatorship? By Professor Anton Caragea

Honduras coup d’état: will Latin America return to era of military dictatorship? By Professor Anton Caragea 

zelaya1                                                           

At the early hours of 28 of June 300 military enter the Honduras Presidential Palace, disarmed the Presidential Guard and arrest the President Manuel Zelaya. The President was quickly exiled to Costa Rica while the landlords Parliaments appointed a poppet president    , one of the richest men in the country.  The first word of the deposed President: this is a coup d’état not only against Honduras but the world? Is he right?

Why was ousted Manuel Zelaya?

In only 3 years after winning the presidential poll in 2006 Manuel Zelaya has being the champion of three major reforms in his country that made him powerful enemies. The first of his planned reforms is a land reform, necessary in a country where 7.000 people (around 0, 1 percent of country population) are owners of 80% percent of the land. The social problem in Honduras is dramatically, with 50% percent of the population below poverty line and unemployment of more than 1, 7 million people the situation is critical. The land reform program was destined to increase little farm, to support city poor from slams to engage in agriculture or alternative economic sectors. But the land owners fight with ferocity to blocked this initiative of President Zelaya as they opposed social program for building roads, sanitation and social houses in the poorest area of the country as they claimed this project where economic unrealistically.

Second project of Zelaya was the constitutional reform needed in a country with social problems, economical unfair system and under an oligarchy rule for more than 50 years. Let’s not forget that the current Constitution was forged under the watchful eye of the military dictatorship and was a condition of the military leaders to restore civilian rule after 20 years of military rule. Zelaya had tried to transform his country in a participative democracy with popular referendum, local’s consultation, extended presidential term and social and economic support for the poor. These changes in the constitution will empower president to make economical reform to improve the living standards of life in the poor stricken country.   The Honduras elite quickly turn into a trans-party alliance of the rich and started to plot the unseat of the president. The decisive moment was the announcement of a non-binding referendum that will prove to the world the Honduras people will for change and constitutional reform. As poll suggested that the referendum will give a more than 70% percent backing to the presidential plan  the opposition launch the coup d’état at the first day of the referendum and burn the ballot boxes.

The third project that created distrust in the President was the moral project, a campaign destined to disclose high pay for the official, to launch corruption enquiry in high state official fortune. This measure cost the president the support of his own Liberal Party made of influential characters many with strong economic ties, the board of the party decided that Zelaya is a loose cannon and a danger to his own party and redrew support for his projects.

The coup will decide Latin America future.

If the coup d’état will work this will be a signal for Latin America that the old days of military dictatorship are back. Already there are frictions between the army and the head of state in Ecuador, Bolivia and Argentina. Bolivian president Evo Morales just survive an attempt to his life mounted by extreme right in Bolivia and a military plot was uncover in 2008. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez was already a victim of a coup d’état attempt in April 2002 and Rafael Correa of Ecuador was also under threat of military intervention. If Honduras attempt will be a successful one will launch a string of military intervention across Latin America destabilizing the region. Already the European Union expressed a strong support for President Zelaya and Organization of American States expressed recognition for Zelaya as the sole president of Honduras. Strangely enough the US reaction was equivocal voicing only concern for Constitutional rule, an expression that the coup leaders will take as a support of the Constitution and Zelaya`s supporters also as a support of their call for democracy.  In the light of this feeble response questions are poring: was possible that the Honduras military, a long time allied of US to mount a coup d’état without Washington knowledge or consent? Was possible that leaders of the opposition with CIA connection did not ask for support and council for the CIA head quarter before moving to oust the president?  Only the future statements from the White House and a clear and sever condemnation of the coup leaders will fade away this worries.

Will Latin America intervene?

The Honduras coup d’état is a threat to the stability in Latin America announced Hugo Chavez in Managua together with his Nicaragua, Ecuador  and Bolivia counterparts , also this was expressed by European Union representatives voicing support for the people of Honduras who rise against the military took over the country. Now the major issue is, will be Latin America strong enough and united enough to topple the military regime in Honduras? On this question the future of the region hang in balance.

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June 29, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Europa lui Anton Caragea de Vlad Hogea- vicepresedintele Partidului Conservator

Vlad Hogea

Europa lui Anton Caragea

Am răspuns cu plăcere invitaţiei de a lua parte la lansarea uneia dintre cele mai solide cărţi ale ultimilor ani: „Gândind la Europa”. Autorul ei (de care mă leagă o veche şi trainică prietenie) – profesorul universitar şi omul de media Anton Caragea – este, fără doar şi poate, la ora actuală, unul dintre cei mai reputaţi experţi în relaţii internaţionale pe care îi are ţara noastră. Multe dintre lucrările lui anterioare le parcursesem cu interes, găsind o excelentă sursă de documentare şi inspiraţie pentru unele dintre studiile mele şi pentru cursurile pe care le predau la universitate. Dar acest volum (care beneficiază şi de o prefaţă elogioasă a fostului preşedinte Emil Constantinescu) este cu totul special.

 Reducand notele de subsol şi trimiterile bibliografice care împovărează, îndeobşte, un tom cu conţinut ştiinţific autorul a reusit sa sporeasca atractivitatea lucrarii. Lejeritatea stilului cu care a fost scrisă cartea s-a dovedit de-a dreptul spectaculoasă: lectura e uşoară şi captivantă. Uşurinţa cu care profesorul Caragea a subordonat şi a adaptat matricei jurnalistice teme şi concepte altminteri aride (precum, de pildă, căutarea identităţii europene şi eterogenitatea melanjului inter-statal, inter-naţional, inter-cultural, inter-religios etc. în construcţia comunitară) a reprezentat un pariu ambiţios, pe care l-a câştigat.

Anton Caragea (care nu poate fi etichetat ca eurosceptic, dar nici eurooptimist nu este, cu siguranţă!) ne plimbă cu caleaşca aristocraţiei intelectuale şi cu ochii minţii sale de cărturar prin istoria Bătrânului Continent, iar concluzia pe care o trage nu este deloc una liniştitoare: „La ora actuală, UE se confruntă cu lipsa unei idei unificatoare. (…) Cât timp va mai putea funcţiona o Uniune Europeană fără un model civilizaţional corent? Aceasta este întrebarea ce se pune acum. Fără îndoială, a alege înseamnă şi a părăsi anumite linii pe care Uniunea este tentată să le urmeze, dar niciodată până la capăt, înseamnă şi limitare, dar înseamnă, în primul rând, identificare şi responsabilitate, coerenţă şi supravieţuire. Modelul tip Ianus al UE ce promite totul şi nimic nu mai poate funcţiona şi elitele intelectuale au început a pune problema şi a căuta soluţii”. Iată nodul gordian, pe care nimeni nu se înghesuie să-l taie: „Privită din interior, Uniunea pare un amestec uimitor de civilizaţii unite şi disparate prin religie, etnicitate, spaţiu geografic şi istorie. Care să fie elementul de coeziune între o civilizaţie catolică, una protestantă şi una ortodoxă, între arealul baltic şi cel mediteranean, între Marea Neagră şi spaţiul continental sau între civilizaţia anglo-saxonă şi cea latină şi slavă? Prea multe culturi, prea multe paradigme civilizaţionale, un adevărat coşmar pentru cei care vor să creeze o identitate europeană sau măcar o interferenţă civilizaţională între cele 27 de state şi cele 9 straturi de civilizaţie europeană. (…) Interferenţa civilizaţională într-o Europă Unită rămâne încă un deziderat al viitorului, o promisiune ce trebuie îndeplinită dacă Europa vrea să supravieţuiască, indiferent de climatul economic şi de modele politice. România trebuie să devină un model al interferenţei civilizaţionale şi să militeze pentru realizarea acestei interferenţe la nivelul Europei Unite. Viitorul Casei Comune a popoarelor europene depinde de această construcţie civilizaţională. Va reuşi ea?”.

O întrebare retorică, la care profesorul Caragea nu cere un răspuns, din partea nimănui. Pentru că deja îl ştie. Iar cunoaşterea răspunsului este unul dintre motivele pentru care a publicat această carte impresionantă atât prin profunzime, cît şi prin sinceritate.

VLAD HOGEA

June 13, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Tourism, Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BREAKING NEWS-MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD WINS IRAN ELECTIONS

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD WINS IRAN ELECTIONS.

QUESTIONS ON LEGITIMICY OF ELECTIONS

mahmoud-ahmadinejad

 

Iranian News National Agency announced that President Ahmadinejad is the clear winner of the presidential poll in Iran. With a great majority in the rural area and a balanced results in the city area Ahmadinejad wins a new 4-year term and a legitimacy of his policies on foreign affairs. More than 70% of the iranian population was present to vote and gives a huge victory to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The final results had appeared, with a huge turnout of more than 85% and a conclusive 61% percent victory Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the new president of Islamic Republic of Iran, his main adversary Mr. Mir Hussein Musavi obtained only 31% percent of the vote despite hopping a better results because of the massive turnout.

The vote is the expression of the Iranians desire in constructing a powerful Iran with a leading role in the Middle East.

Unfortunately the vote was not supervised by international observer so is impossible to verify claims on vote rigging or to give an acceptance to the vote. The votes remain under question and Iran democratic legitimacy under balance as well. All the tense atmosphere in Teheran, vote rigging claims and violence’s could have being avoided only by inviting foreign observers , a vote that is not under international observer control is subject to serious questions. Iran has missed an important opportunity in establishing a record as a country with free elections.

June 12, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ROMANIA IS HEADING TO NATIONAL BANKRUPTCY ? by Professor Anton Caragea

Romania is heading to national bankruptcy?

 GM sinking  creates Romanian banckruptcy

General Motors sinking is draging romanian economy to the bottom.

 

The implications of the world economic crisis are starting to cripple severely Romanian economy. From the last six month negative news is starting poring: decrease in stock exchange values of more than 60% percent, sharp reduction in industrial and agricultural production. The latest news is really black: a financial crisis will strike Romanian economy by the end of this year.

Budget in crisis.

At the beginning of the year the new government of Romania had registered a sad record: the first government in the last 10 years that was incapable of promoting a budget at the beginning of the year. For three month Romanian administration and economy was confronted with an unprecedented situation, to act with no budget and no resources. Only after 4 month, in April the Emil Boc government succeeded in passing throw Parliament his budget putting an end to the crisis.         

Finally when the budget was accepted a terrible news stroke the Romanian economy, 1 billion dollars deficit inscribed in the budget where to be covered by the General  Motors investment in Craiova Car Factory. In April was already clear that GM will not be able to pay his 1 billion debt to Romanian government.    So when Romania finally has a budget this is incorrect by 1 billion dollar, small change, no?

Financial storm is gathering.

The budget soon became unrealistically , already local administration announced that at the end of May they consume all the money allocated for this year  , with low  tax income because of the reduction in economic activity, almost 60% of the cities in Romania are in bankruptcy and are requesting state help.

On 1 June the National Found for Retirement Pension announced that is bankrupt because in 2008 they lost 800 million lei ( almost 250 million euro) and in 2009 almost 300 million from a total of 600 millions so they will not be able to pay retirement pension to the people in the social welfare system.

The rest of economic dates are somber: unemployment has rise to 10% percent (official figure) the unions are appreciating that correct figures are around 15% percent. The budget deficit is increasing sharply against all governmental efforts to reduce this deficit and already European Union Commission has announced the beginning of procedure against Romanian state for excessive deficit.

Real estate values collapse.

The real estate market has virtually sis to exist: transaction has decreased by 90% percent, the credit for real estate has frozen (just 10 people had received bank loans for real estate investment from the 2009 has begun). The prices slide had made huge fortune to disappear , at the present day  prices had descended from 3.000 euro for squared meter in 2007 to below 300 in may 2009 (30.000 a one room flat in center Bucharest, 40.000 two room flat and 200.000 euro for more the 6 room flat ).

This collapse had affected financial market and investment market and provoked a huge storm of bankruptcy, in the leasing field the number of firms had decreased by 50% percent and the new tax system had provoked a new wave of closing done small enterprises.

Bank system failure.

In January 2009 the Raiffeissen Bank General Manager announced that he will be forced to closed operation in Eastern Europe without Romanian support, Central Europe Bank makes a similar announcement why National Bank announced that he suspect that 10 major Bank`s will closed their operation in two years.  The state support, by the end of this year, to bank system must be over 10 billion dollars to avoid a collapse of the system.

IMF loans: saving the economy or burring Romania?                                

In mid April the government announced that has the solution to all problems: a loan with European Union and IMF (International Monetary Fund). 20 billion euro will reshape the economy and there will cover expenses throw the economic crisis. But the dream was short lived.

The loan was accompanied by very strict observation and rules from IMF that will take control of Romanian economy an experience that in 1996 ended in Romanian economy collapse and no Romanian was eager to repeat this experience.  But the image of 20 billion euro entering the Romanian economy put this fear to rest. Now after 2 month from the first 5 billion euro from IMF loan where injected in the economy the results are tragic.  2.5 billions has being wasted in keeping the national currency from loosing value and 2.5 billion in economic deficit balance. If the Romanian economy is wasting 5 billion euro in two months that is an alarm signal because the entire loan will not last by the end of the year. Many journalist had speculated that the rush in accepting the IMF condition where connected to corruption charges against member of the Boc cabinet , cabinet unanimously considered as the most corrupt in Romanian recent history .    

National Bankruptcy: a working hypothesis.

The grim picture is getting even darker: Romania had taken official loan of 20 billion euro but in the same time non-state firms had taken international private loan of more than 20 billion. So in two months 40 billion where wasted in keeping the appearances for an electoral year that Romania will survive the economic crisis. The state effort in pulling out of the crisis the real estate sector (by FIRST HOUSE PROGRAMM) and car sectors (CHANGE CAR PROGRAMM) had failed tragically offering no tangible results for Romanian economy.  Until now the Romanian budget had survived in the last 6 years on the important foreign investments attracted by the favorable Romanian economy climate. In 2008 more than 12 billion euro where invested in Romanian economy sustaining the budget. This year only 1 billion euro where invested in our economy a decreased by 90 % completely insufficient in balancing the budget.  In conclusion : a budget confronted with increase in spending and a sharply decrease in tax collection , a national debt of 60 billion euro and increasing by 20 billion and a private debt of more than 40 billion euro . This will result on an annual service of more than 5 billion euro impossible to be sustained by Romanian economy, so will see in the next year a new rush for credits with 10% interest.  Romania is entering the world crisis with a feeble financial system, a national debt of around 100 billion at the year end and a condensing internal market.

If this financial policy of the present government will continue national bankruptcy is not a hypothesis but certitude.

June 8, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Revelaţia siriană de Vlad Hogea, vicepresedintele Partidului Conservator

Revelaţia siriană de Vlad Hogea

Vlad Hogea

Am fost o săptămână în Siria, într-o delegaţie condusă de profesorul Anton Caragea, vizita noastră a fost posibilă prin amabilitatea ambasadorului Republicii Arabe Siriene în România, Excelenţa Sa Walid Othman, iar ideea s-a dovedit salutară. Ştiam unele lucruri despre acea parte a Levantului, mai ales că legăturile româno-siriene au fost, în ultimele 4 decenii, extrem de solide: să nu uităm că 35.000 de sirieni (dintre care 3 actuali miniştri ai Guvernului de la Damasc şi numeroşi alţi demnitari!) au studiat în universităţile din ţara noastră, unii dintre ei căsătorindu-se cu românce şi întemeind, astfel, familii mixte. Mii de societăţi comerciale de pe teritoriul României aparţin unor cetăţeni sirieni. Românii au construit în Siria rafinării şi alte obiective importante. Aşadar, avem în comun elemente care ţin de trecutul recent, de prezentul continuu şi, în consecinţă, există premizele unei strânse colaborări şi pe viitor.

Am plecat cu speranţa că Siria este o ţară de descoperit şi m-am întors cu bucuria unei adevărate revelaţii. Niciunul dintre stereotipurile colportate în anii din urmă de anumiţi jurnalişti rău-informaţi sau rău-intenţionaţi nu stă în picioare. Ba dimpotrivă, am străbătut cu plăcere, de la miazănoapte la miazăzi şi de la răsărit la apus, o ţară superbă din toate punctele de vedere. Siria păstrează urmele unei istorii îndelungate şi glorioase (să nu uităm că Damascul este cea mai veche capitală din lume, păstrându-şi acest statut din antichitate până în zilele noastre), dar face loc şi modernizării civilizaţionale (vizibilă inclusiv prin infrastructură), în contextul unei stabilităţi politice ai căror piloni sunt preşedintele Bashar Al Asad (fiul şi purtătorul moştenirii spirituale a lui Hafez Al Asad), partidul BAAS şi Frontul Naţional Progresist.

Am văzut locul unde Saul din Tars a primit, pe drumul Damascului, mesajul Domnului şi s-a întors cu faţa către creştinism, rămânând în istorie ca Sf. Pavel. Am intrat în Moscheea Omeiazilor (unde se află şi capul Sf. Ioan Botezătorul, cinstit şi de către religia islamică). Am atins mormântul lui Saladin (faimosul cuceritor al Ierusalimului şi unificator al triburilor arabe), dar nu ne-au scăpat nici mănăstirile ridicate în memoria Sfintei Tecla şi a Sfinţilor Sergiu şi Bacchus (nici o conexiune cu zeul vinului!). Am vizitat Palatul Azem, fortăreţele din Alep şi Crac des Chevaliers, vestigiile multimilenare de la Ugarit, magnifica zonă a Latakiei, amfiteatrul roman de la Bosra (mult mai bine păstrat decât Colosseumul din Roma!) – oraşul unde Mahomed s-a întâlnit cu un călugăr creştin care i-a prevestit că va fi marele profet al unei noi religii. Am mers şi în regiunea Golan, la Quneitra, oraşul distrus bucată cu bucată (conform concluziilor comisiei internaţionale) de către trupele israeliene, în 1973, între momentul încheierii armistiţiului şi cel al retragerii parţiale. Desigur, întâlnirile oficiale la nivel ministerial şi politic ne-au oferit privilegiul să aflăm multe lucruri interesante despre realităţile de azi şi despre rolul Siriei ca „parte a soluţiei şi nu parte a problemei din regiune” (cum remarca preşedintele ţării). Pretutindeni am fost întâmpinaţi şi trataţi cu prietenie. O prietenie în care sirienii cred cu convingere. O prietenie construită şi consolidată în decenii de încredere reciprocă. O prietenie pe care nimeni nu are dreptul să o ignore sau să o calce în picioare.

VLAD HOGEA

June 2, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Tourism, Travel | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment