ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2013: GDP, INFLATION, ECONOMIC DATA
Economic forecast: Romanian economy in 2013. GDP, Inflation, Bankruptcy.
Wednesday 30 of January 2013 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2013: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2013. The aggravating crisis!
Beggars on the street of Romania: a sign of failed economic policy
The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.
2009- 2012 –the first period of crisis.
The conference started with an evaluation of the impact of economic crisis in the last period: 2009-2012.
In 2009 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.
The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating that now we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010-2012 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2013.
Professor dr. Anton Caragea-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation chairing the romanian economist`s meeting.
2011-2012: The period of economic earthquake.
2011 and 2012 will be remembered as the worst years of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.
First of all the 2011 has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.
The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.
The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.
2013 – European economic crisis will impact hard on Romania.
The 2013 will be a decisive year to on how will be affected the Romanian economy by the European meltdown.
Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc. In 2013 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity.
Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.
Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had became a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.
The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.
2013 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either is bluntly laying.
All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.
Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist- Mihail Racaceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2013 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2013 and 2018 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis level.
Homeless and hungry in Great Britain. How EU crisis will affect Romania ?
2013 budget- a budget of economic decline.
In 2013 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling inflation but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.
The 2013 budget is the first budget in the eight year period that is not approved prior to 1-th of January, a negative record that is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.
The budget expected deficit of 2, 4% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 8-10% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.
What is dramatic is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 8 billion euro investment planned for this year the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability. Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 10 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs. The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year. He present day budget is not only of severe austerity but of severe contraction stated the economists present at the meeting.
Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.
This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.
This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.
This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.
The resurgence of inflation will put a dramatic pressing on population economy and will make any recovery unthinkable for the next 1-2 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke next year an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis in the governmental incompetence that by: increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investor in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.
External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.
The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.
The Emil Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.
In 2012 the Mihai Razvan Ungureanu government succeeded in just a few months to reduce the National bank Reserves by 20 billion euro, an unprecedented squandering of public money in Romanian history.
Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.
Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 12% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.
2013: The worsening of economic crisis.
The conclusion of the most important economic experts of Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s. The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.
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On 15 July 2016 H.E. Professor Dr. Anton Caragea has received his official nomination as GLOBAL AMBASSADOR OF TOURISM in addition to the 2014 appointment as GOODWILL AMBASSADOR FOR WORLD PROTECTED AREAS AND NATURAL PARKS
The Kingdom of Cambodia had received the official visit of Professor Dr. Anton Caragea high-ranking delegation in a joint effort to boost the friendship and dialogue on international stage.
The visit was inscribed in the bilateral decision to uphold the rapid development of the cultural, trade, economic and political ties.
Between 22 May and 29 May 2015, H.E.Professor Dr. Anton Caragea has lead an official Monitoring Mission for Kazakhstan Early Presidential Elections
Between 28 May and 7 June 2014 H.E.Professor Dr. Anton Caragea has lead an official European delegation to Republic of Zimbabwe and had assisted to World Best Tourist Destination Ward Ceremony for 2014.
H.E. Professor Dr. Anton Caragea was congratulated for his instrumental role in promoting Zimbabwe candidature for hosting World Best Tourist Destination for 2014.
Between 25 November to 2 December 2013 H.E. Professor Dr. Anton Caragea was invited for an official working visit to United Arab Emirates on the occasion of the 42 anniversary of UAE National Day.
H.E. Professor Dr. Anton Caragea was congratulated for his instrumental role in promoting Dubai candidature for World Expo 2020.
Between 30 October to 4 November 2013 His Excellency Professor Dr. Anton Caragea has being invited by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan to attend Baku International Humanitarian Forum 2013
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- WORLD TOURISM INSTITUTION SELECTS CAMBODIA AS WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION IN 2016The President of European Council on Tourism and Trade, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, had led an official delegation representing the World Tourism Institutes: European Tourism Academy and European Council on Tourism and Trade to a tour of Kingdom of Cambodia cultural and historical patrimony, in order to evaluate the country destiny as a tourism power house […]
- EUROPE DECIDES TO AWARD TO ETHIOPIA THE STATUS OF WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION FOR 2015On the landmark occasion, of the universal proclamation of World Best Tourist Destination for 2015, a top ranking delegation from European Council on Tourism and Trade was invited for a discovery tour of Ethiopia, the receiver of this year most influential tourism designation. Ethiopia national anthem for WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION FOR 2015 The visit to […]
- PUBLIC STATEMENT OF EUROPEAN ELECTION MISSION: KAZAKHSTAN ELECTIONS FROM 26 APRIL 2015 WHERE IN ACCORDANCE WITH COPENHAGEN DECLARATION On 5th May 2015 the presentation of the ASSESSMENT OF EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN ON 26 APRIL 2015 was held in a public ceremony. The assessment report was compiled by European delegation lead by President of European Council on International Relation, Professor Dr. Anton Caragea. President Anton Caragea on International Press Conference Meeti […]
- EUCIR STATEMENT: PRESIDENT NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV RE-ELECTION WAS FAIR AND SQUAREEUROPEAN COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ELECTORAL ASSESSMENT ON 26 APRIL 2015 EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN INTRODUCTION According to an official invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Kazakhstan to observe the 26 April 2015 snap presidential election, the EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS dec […]
- EUROPEAN MONITORING MISSION DEPLOYED TO KAZAKHSTAN FOR 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSKazakhstan is preparing to hold early elections on 26 of April 2015, with threecontenders competing for the country top post: incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev, the challenger from the Communist People’s Party- Turgun Syzdykov and self-nominee Abelgazi Kusainov. In the preparation of the 2015 election, the country top watch dog-Central Electoral Comm […]
- WORLD TOURISM INSTITUTION SELECTS CAMBODIA AS WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION IN 2016
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