Centrul Diplomatic/Diplomatic Center

Centrul de Studii Politice si Diplomatie/ Center for Political Science and Diplomacy



         Hafez_al-Assad                                                                                   447px-Syria_BasharAlAssad                                             



Joi 5 noiembrie 2009 în Bucureşti, în prezenţa Excelenţei Sale Ambasadorului Republicii Arabe Siriene la Bucureşti, Walid Othman şi a Ministrului Adjunct al Turismului din Siria dl.Muhannad Kalash a fost inaugurată  strălucitoarea expoziţie: Siria-leagănul civilizaţiilor si al credintei.

Inaugurarea s-a bucurat de o prezenţă impunătoare , personalităţi marcante ale Corpului Diplomatic acreditat la Bucureşti precum:Yakoub Yousef Al Hosani , Ambasadorul Emiratelor Arabe Unite, Salem Al Jaber –  Ambasadorul Qatar-ului, Ahmad Aqel – Ambasadorul Palestinei ,  Mohamed El Dib – Ambasadorul Libanului etc. Alături de lumea diplomatică , personalităţi academice marcante , reprezentanţi ai societăţii civile şi ai mass media au participat la eveniment . Expoziţia Siria-leagănul civilizaţiilor a oferit largului public prezent oportunitatea de a se familiariza cu frumuseţile extraordinare pe care istoria şi geografia Siriei le oferă celor care vizitează această ţară. De la minunile Damascului, capitală a celor o mie şi una de nopţi şi paradis arhitectural islamic, până la comorile de artă creştină de la Maloula şi Seydnaya, totul încoronat cu  bijuteria arhitectonică şi arheologică a Palmyrei. În pus expoziţia a oferit vizitatorilor o imagine rară a frumuseţilor picturii religioase creştine siriene , frumuseţi în mod nedrept uitate, dar pe care acum Guvernul Republicii Arabe Siriene le readuce în circuitul valorilor mondiale. In ultima perioada Ministerul Turismului din Siria sub conducerea Ministrului Saadalla Agha a reusit sa impuna Siria pe harta turismului mondial , iar Ambasada Siriei din Bucuresti sub conducerea dl. Walid Othman a reusit sa dea un nou suflu turismului sirian in Romania si au reusit sa creeze un nou eveniment de marca prin expozitia Siria. Leaganul civilizatiiilor. Toţi cei prezenţi au considerat, în unanimitate, că ne aflăm în faţa celui mai deosebit eveniment cultural găzduit de Bucureşti în anul 2009.

Intalnire 6

Excelenta sa Walid Othman, ambasadorul R.A.Siria, Ministrul adjunct al Turismului din Siria Muhannad Kalash si Ministrul Interimar al Culturii Th. Paleologu

Intalnire 2

Excelenta Sa Walid Othman, ambasadorul R.A. Siria, Profesor Anton Caragea, directorul IRICE si dra. Raluca Al Hadad,  Ambasada R.A. Siria in Romania

Intalnire 1

Tinerii invitati la ceremonie

Obiecte prezentate in expozitie



November 8, 2009 Posted by | Diplomacy, Eastern Europe, Foreign policy, History, Informations, International Relation, Leaders, Mass media, News, Politics, Religion, Syria, Tourism | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment


Romania is heading to national bankruptcy?

 GM sinking  creates Romanian banckruptcy

General Motors sinking is draging romanian economy to the bottom.


The implications of the world economic crisis are starting to cripple severely Romanian economy. From the last six month negative news is starting poring: decrease in stock exchange values of more than 60% percent, sharp reduction in industrial and agricultural production. The latest news is really black: a financial crisis will strike Romanian economy by the end of this year.

Budget in crisis.

At the beginning of the year the new government of Romania had registered a sad record: the first government in the last 10 years that was incapable of promoting a budget at the beginning of the year. For three month Romanian administration and economy was confronted with an unprecedented situation, to act with no budget and no resources. Only after 4 month, in April the Emil Boc government succeeded in passing throw Parliament his budget putting an end to the crisis.         

Finally when the budget was accepted a terrible news stroke the Romanian economy, 1 billion dollars deficit inscribed in the budget where to be covered by the General  Motors investment in Craiova Car Factory. In April was already clear that GM will not be able to pay his 1 billion debt to Romanian government.    So when Romania finally has a budget this is incorrect by 1 billion dollar, small change, no?

Financial storm is gathering.

The budget soon became unrealistically , already local administration announced that at the end of May they consume all the money allocated for this year  , with low  tax income because of the reduction in economic activity, almost 60% of the cities in Romania are in bankruptcy and are requesting state help.

On 1 June the National Found for Retirement Pension announced that is bankrupt because in 2008 they lost 800 million lei ( almost 250 million euro) and in 2009 almost 300 million from a total of 600 millions so they will not be able to pay retirement pension to the people in the social welfare system.

The rest of economic dates are somber: unemployment has rise to 10% percent (official figure) the unions are appreciating that correct figures are around 15% percent. The budget deficit is increasing sharply against all governmental efforts to reduce this deficit and already European Union Commission has announced the beginning of procedure against Romanian state for excessive deficit.

Real estate values collapse.

The real estate market has virtually sis to exist: transaction has decreased by 90% percent, the credit for real estate has frozen (just 10 people had received bank loans for real estate investment from the 2009 has begun). The prices slide had made huge fortune to disappear , at the present day  prices had descended from 3.000 euro for squared meter in 2007 to below 300 in may 2009 (30.000 a one room flat in center Bucharest, 40.000 two room flat and 200.000 euro for more the 6 room flat ).

This collapse had affected financial market and investment market and provoked a huge storm of bankruptcy, in the leasing field the number of firms had decreased by 50% percent and the new tax system had provoked a new wave of closing done small enterprises.

Bank system failure.

In January 2009 the Raiffeissen Bank General Manager announced that he will be forced to closed operation in Eastern Europe without Romanian support, Central Europe Bank makes a similar announcement why National Bank announced that he suspect that 10 major Bank`s will closed their operation in two years.  The state support, by the end of this year, to bank system must be over 10 billion dollars to avoid a collapse of the system.

IMF loans: saving the economy or burring Romania?                                

In mid April the government announced that has the solution to all problems: a loan with European Union and IMF (International Monetary Fund). 20 billion euro will reshape the economy and there will cover expenses throw the economic crisis. But the dream was short lived.

The loan was accompanied by very strict observation and rules from IMF that will take control of Romanian economy an experience that in 1996 ended in Romanian economy collapse and no Romanian was eager to repeat this experience.  But the image of 20 billion euro entering the Romanian economy put this fear to rest. Now after 2 month from the first 5 billion euro from IMF loan where injected in the economy the results are tragic.  2.5 billions has being wasted in keeping the national currency from loosing value and 2.5 billion in economic deficit balance. If the Romanian economy is wasting 5 billion euro in two months that is an alarm signal because the entire loan will not last by the end of the year. Many journalist had speculated that the rush in accepting the IMF condition where connected to corruption charges against member of the Boc cabinet , cabinet unanimously considered as the most corrupt in Romanian recent history .    

National Bankruptcy: a working hypothesis.

The grim picture is getting even darker: Romania had taken official loan of 20 billion euro but in the same time non-state firms had taken international private loan of more than 20 billion. So in two months 40 billion where wasted in keeping the appearances for an electoral year that Romania will survive the economic crisis. The state effort in pulling out of the crisis the real estate sector (by FIRST HOUSE PROGRAMM) and car sectors (CHANGE CAR PROGRAMM) had failed tragically offering no tangible results for Romanian economy.  Until now the Romanian budget had survived in the last 6 years on the important foreign investments attracted by the favorable Romanian economy climate. In 2008 more than 12 billion euro where invested in Romanian economy sustaining the budget. This year only 1 billion euro where invested in our economy a decreased by 90 % completely insufficient in balancing the budget.  In conclusion : a budget confronted with increase in spending and a sharply decrease in tax collection , a national debt of 60 billion euro and increasing by 20 billion and a private debt of more than 40 billion euro . This will result on an annual service of more than 5 billion euro impossible to be sustained by Romanian economy, so will see in the next year a new rush for credits with 10% interest.  Romania is entering the world crisis with a feeble financial system, a national debt of around 100 billion at the year end and a condensing internal market.

If this financial policy of the present government will continue national bankruptcy is not a hypothesis but certitude.

June 8, 2009 Posted by | Ecology, Economy, Environment, Foreign policy, History, Informations, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Moldavia: between revolution and geopolitics.

Moldavia: between revolution and geopolitics.

In the last days the capital of Republic of Moldavia was the scene of several violent manifestations remembering the velvet revolutions of 1989 against communist dictatorship in Eastern Europe.  Whatever will be the outcome of these popular actions we must remember the geopolitical destiny of Republic of Moldavia, destiny that this popular outcry tries to change.

Republic of Moldavia: Stalin`s child.               

 If it is today to find in Europe a product of Stalin`s vision still surviving this will surely be Republic of Moldavia. Created in 1924 on the left bank of the river Nistru this republic was in Stalin opinion a window for the URSS to keep open the option of  the long march to Istanbul. Ti this aimed the so called Moldavian republic was at that time only an autonomous republic placed under the control of the Soviet Republic of Ukraine and the center for the greatest soviet army, Ukraine south who was destined to conquer Romania, Bulgaria and to open the road for the Soviet Army to Istanbul, the city of the tsars as the Russians know it. In 1944 when the soviet army was wining the Second World War Stalin decided to restructure the so called autonomous republic and to make it a Soviet Republic with capital in Kishinev  and offered as territory the ancient Romanian province of Bessarabia.

The geopolitical idea of the new Republic of Moldavia was unchanged: in Moldavia in the cold war years was stationed the greatest soviet army: 14-th army from Tiraspol with the same military objectives: conquering Turkey and the Middle East. Also in republic of Moldavia was the greatest military supervision center, telecommunication interceptor and the greatest factory for short range rocket and military equipment.

Republic of Moldavia : Russia window to Balkans.  

When the Soviet Union collapsed the Russian Federation decided to maintained the control of this territory from various reasons: while Republic of Moldavia was under Russian control the hope to reconstruct the southern part of the  Soviet Empire was still alive.

 Republic of Moldavia could be a factor to threat Romania and to keep a window for Balkans and a placed to surround Ukraine and to stop any attempt of Kiev to brake the Russian encircle and to create a European and NATO destiny for Ukraine. Russia concentrated all his efforts in 1991 and 1992 to maintained Republic of Moldavia in his sphere of influence; he organized a rebellion with the support of 14-th Army in Transnistria, a small province of Republic of Moldavia at the Ukraine border. In Transnistria where located the military factory and the barracks of the 14-th Army that Russia was not eager to loose in the favor of the new state.

Finally after the Transnistria war in 1991-1992 and the Russian military direct intervention  a coup d’état was stage at Kishinev  and the democratic prime minister at that time , Mircea Druc was deposed and forced to fled to exile. From that time Russia supported puppets regime in the Republic of Moldova that signed the joining of Moldavia to Community of Independent State, signed treaty with Russia and created an economy dependent only on the Russian market and support.     All this time Russia did not accept to evacuate Transnistria and to support the integration of the rebel province into Moldavia ( the scenario of Abkhazia in Georgia ) and created in Transnistria a mafia state supported by the illegal arm supplies to all countries in war from Zaire to Rwanda and Saddam Hussein`s Iraq.

 Republic of Moldavia remained under Russian control even in 2004/2005 when the region was under the orange revolution time that tried to orient this space towards US and European Union. But the last two years 2007/2008 changed this landscape of compliance with Russian federation political views.


Republic of Moldavia: wind of change ?

Many factors had contributed to this: rapid deterioration of economic situation, decrees in wage and pension values, growing of unemployment and Russian reduction of subsidies. The final blow to Moldavian economy came in January when the Russia-Ukraine gas row practically produced the collapse of Moldavian budget. Not only economy has failed in Moldavia, but also for the first time in the last 20 years a real European implication in this area started to be created, E.U. missions, and investments created a feeling that finally Russia has a geopolitical counterpart and a new vision for Moldavia could be possible. Finally the Romanian economy rapid development created a magnet for Moldavia population who is Romanian as origin, language and history and started to hope that a Romanian support for a European Union enlargement with Moldavia could be possible. This new political landscape made the political power at Kishinev  even more hard-line: Russian relation where tightened, the border with Romania was shut and Romanian media banned from Moldavia. In this atmosphere of cold war the communist power at Kishinev  was sure that he will win the election.   

The fact that Republic of Moldavia is not meeting any democratic criteria is not a surprise to anyone. The National TV and Radio are under the state control, the opposition is not aloud participation of state media, the newspapers are controlled, and the economy is under state regulation and local mafia control. The April 5-th elections were held after two month of violent verbal assaults on the opposition from the government part, massive pressure on opposition media, banning of  opposition gathering and the long list of irregularity could go on forever. Finally in the election day 35% percent of the population of Moldavia decided to go on holiday and voted on supplementary list ( without paper control) which is strange generally in the world this number is no greater than 2% , but the population of Moldavia ,loves traveling on election day it seemed.                                                                                                                                No surprise, in this condition the Communist Party claimed victory with 50% percent of the electoral votes, even better that his on prediction. This was a mistake, the opposition was ready to accept a negation for power and a power sharing deal for a slow democratization but this result showed that Communist Party wanted to rule alone and no compromise was possible. This sparked the popular discontent and lead to massive demonstration in Moldavian capital: Kishinev.

No chance for Moldavia.

Unfortunately this popular action has little chance to change anything: US is having an appeasement approach towards Russia and Barrack Obama is not Bush in august war in Georgia. So no chance of a US support operation for a late orange revolution. European Union is also eager to strike economical deals and energy deals with Russia not to further antagonized the power of Russia. Finally Romania is crippled by economic problems, a president in a corruption scandal and seeking reelection in much contested election at the end of the year. In this political landscape the geopolitical destiny of Republic of Moldavia will remained the same, in the orbit of Russian action.                  

Professor Anton Caragea



April 8, 2009 Posted by | Economy, Foreign policy, History, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment