Centrul Diplomatic/Diplomatic Center

Centrul de Studii Politice si Diplomatie/ Center for Political Science and Diplomacy

ROMANIAN REAL ESTATE PRICES IN 2013. ROMANIA INDEX OF PROPERTIES

Monday-4 February 2013, under the patronage of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania, the conference on REAL ESTATE IN ROMANIA IN 2013. Lower prices or bankruptcy. has taken place. The conference was a get together of real estate agents, experts, brokers and real estate funds from Romania and EU and economists.

real estate-scaderea preturilorReal estate value had reached  the values of 2000. The fall in prices continues.

2012: a record loss on real estate field.

The debates started by highlighting the drop in prices on real estate market in Romania during 2012. The average price reduction was around 45% last year, the biggest drop since the crisis hit Romania but the prices are still a long way to go before they reach the real estate reality area. New significant drops in prices are necessary until the market will stabilized and the investment in real estate will become one more time efficient.

The initial value of 1.200/1.300 euro per square meter had dropped by the year end towards 800 to 650 euro per square meter, but is a long way to go until normal prices will come back on Romanian real estate.

The real dimensions of real estate crisis in Romania where made public: real estate frozen projects are reaching a value of 3 billion euro, the bankruptcy numbers in the construction field reach 80% of the investor`s numbers and 2 billion euro announced to be invested in real estate never materialized .

2013: a 60%percent drop in prices is expected.

The real estate market will continue on a downward spiral, with decreasing in prices reaching 80% in rural areas, secondary or vacation house and provincial cities real estate objectives.

The prices are expected to fall below 200-250 euro per square meter in prime areas of Bucharest real estate.

The falling in prices is fueled by the banking crisis, the spike in banking interest rates, high inflation, dramatic decrees in investment, drastic reduction in real income for majority of Romanians and also decrees in foreign investments and in revenues from Romanian working abroad.

To this long list of negative trends we can add the 100.000 flats that will be put on the market by the banks in the foreclosure process.

Already the banks presented the actions starting prices ranging fro 19.000 to 22.000 euro for one room flat, to 30.000 euro per two rooms flat and around 45.000 euro for three room flats. The mansions and villas are sold at pricing ranging from 60.000 euro per 100 squared meters villas for high luxury areas and as low as 20-30.000 euro in secondary areas.

The prices for land already dropped with 70% in 2012 and will furthermore decrease with 50% this year, bellow 50 euro per square meter in central areas of Bucharest.

Other phenomena that are impacting downwards the prices are: a drop in population income by 30% in 2013,a negative trend that will reduce bellow 20.000 people the number of real estate buyers ( from a maximum of 1 million Romanians active on real estate market before the crisis).

The banking system is engulfed in crisis and the average real interest is around 20% which is making the cost of real estate credits unsustainable. We can conclude that taking a real estate loan in this period is the path towards bankruptcy and foreclosure for 90% of the clients.

real estateThe houses market has collapsed and left 1 million romanian`s heavy indebted.

The real estate market is flooded by foreclosure.

The real estate collapse will continue and be aggravated on the count of individual properties foreclosures and also company bankruptcy that will flood the market with over 10.000 hectares of prime land that will press down the prices this year.

1.000 to 2.000 villas and mansions will also appear on the market in 2013 in areas as: Colentina, Bucurestii Noi, Pipera, Baneasa, Damaroaia etc. This will be sold on the market at prices bellow 60.000 euro and will push toward collapse the luxury real estate market.

This conservative estimates are based on property values offered already on the market by the banks on the foreclosure process stated Lo Petersen from banking consortium active on Romanian market. The decrease in economic activity forecasted for this year will only aggravate the situation concluded the official.

Chef Economist Mihail Racaceanu underlined in his speech that real estate market can not operate outside the negative climate of Romanian and EU economy.

The price per square meter in prime real estate areas cannot be over medium salary value by more than two times. As in Romania the salary is around 200 euro a price per square meter can not be substantiated up to more than 400 euro per square meter.

The responsibility of real estate crisis is mostly the burden on the lacuna of education of Romanian real estate agencies. The real estate agent must emphasize the necessity of a rapid reduction of prices in order to mend the crisis on real estate market. The market will restart if we will reach the interest zone around 300 euros, concluded the chief economist.

real estate1On the market there is a proverb: who buy, is a looser.

The housing/villa market: the main victim of 2013.

The main hit will be directed in 2013 towards houses and villas.

The economy crisis had dramatically reduced the number of interested players for buying this type of real estate, and the expenses to maintain such a property had gone up impressively, worsening the perspective for this type of properties. This type of properties is the most vulnerable for banking foreclosures because rapid prosecuted and sell on the market at prices below 80.000 euro thus villas can help the banks to cut their losses. In 2013 areas such as: Mosilor, Damaroaia ,Bucurestii Noi,  Pipera, Baneasa, Tunari still offer the possibility to be sold around 60.000 euro, the rest of the areas of south and east of the capital are completely unfit for marketing and selling.

The foreclosures will open the market for villas at below 60.000 euro, concluded the panel of experts.

Simple truth: who buy`s is a looser!

In order to reignite the real estate market the key role is belonging to the real estate agencies.  They must apply the necessary pressure to bring down the prices by at least 50% and to lead the properties owners from the la la land fantasies prices to a real assessment of the value of their properties in order to restart financial operations and re-emergence of profit on the market.

We should understand an obvious lesson that no investment in Romania is possible at prices of 400-500 euro per square meter as long as similar opportunities are to be found in Hungary, Greece, Turkey or Bulgaria but at prices below 100 euro.  In this moment any buyer of Romanian properties is a looser, concluded the guests present at the conference.

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February 4, 2013 Posted by | Diplomacy, Economy, Foreign policy, History, Informations, International Relation, Leaders, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

PRETURI CASE. PRETURI TERENURI. EVOLUTII IMOBILIARE IN 2013

Luni, 4 februarie 2013, a avut loc, sub egida Institutului de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, conferinta:  Piata Imobiliara in 2013.  Scaderea preturilor si falimente !

 Conferinta a reunit economisti, experti imobiliari, firme de brokeraj imobiliar si fonduri de investitii imobiliare din strainatate.

 real estate-scaderea preturilor

Scaderile de preturi au adus piata la nivelul anilor 2000, noi reduceri de preturi sunt asteptate.

2012: o noua scadere record pe piata imobiliara.

 

Dezabaterea a inceput cu  analiza reducerilor de preturi de pe piata imobiliara din Romania. Scaderile medii de preturi, de peste 45% in anul trecut, au fost sensibile, dar nu au adus inca in domeniul realitatii piata imobiliara romanesca, noi scaderi drastice de preturi fiind necesare pana cand piata se va stabiliza si investitia imobiliara va redeveni eficienta.

Scaderea de valoare, de la 1.200/1.300 de euro pe metrul patrat la 800-650 de euro, nu reprezinta decat inceputul normalizarii pietii proprietatilor imobiliare romanesti. Alte cifre facute publice, in cadrul intalnirii, au aratat dimensiunile prabusirii: proiecte imobiliare inghetate in valoare de peste 3 miliarde de euro, numarul falimentelor in lumea developerilor ( constructorilor ) a depasit 80%, retragerea de pe piata romaneasca a peste 2 miliarde de euro, ce ar fi trebuit investite in imobiliare.

2013: o scadere prognozata de 60% a preturilor.

Evolutia pietei imobiliare in 2013 va fi in continuare una negativa, cu scaderi de peste 80% pe zona rurala si a oraselor de provincie si a vilelor de vacanta si cu o scadere de 50-60% pentru zona proprietatilor din Bucuresti.

Pretul trebuie sa ajunga, la finele anului, la o valoare de 200-250 de euro pe metru patrat construit, in zonele de prim rang din Bucuresti.

Scaderea preturilor este alimentata de criza sistemului bancar, ratele dobanzilor in crestere, rata ridicata a inflatiei, scaderea economiei romanesti din ultimii ani, scaderea sumelor destinate investitiilor, reducerea drastica a veniturilor reale ale populatiei , scaderea masiva a veniturilor romanilor ce muncesc in afara granitelor etc.

 La acesti factori se adauga si aparitia pe piata a peste 100.000 de apartamente si case  ce vor fi confiscate de banci, ca urmare a dificultatilor financiare ale proprietarilor, in acest an.

 real estate

Povara creditelor bancare sufoca orice noua achizitie. 

Deja bancile au anuntat noile preturi de incepere a licitatiilor, preturi ce ajung la garsonierele situate in zone centrale la sume intre 19.000 si 22.000 de euro, apartamentele cu 2 camere cu 30.000 de euro si cele de trei camere cu 45.000 de euro, vilele peste 100 de metri patrati cu 60.000 de euro, cu conditia sa fie in zone centrale- si cu 20-30.000 de euro in zone perferice.

Preturile terenurilor in Bucuresti, dupa ce au cunoscut deja o scadere cu 70%  in 2012 ,vor scadea din nou cu inca 50%, la sub 50 de euro pe metru patrat, in centrul Bucurestiului.

Alte fenomene ce influenteaza scaderile de preturi, ce au fost evidentiate in timpul conferintei sunt: reducerea veniturilor populatiei in 2013 cu 30% , ceea ce va reduce corespunzator  numarul celor ce pot accesa credite si pot face investitii imobiliare la sub 20.000 de oameni ( fata de 1 milion de romani ce tranzactionau pe piata imobiliara, inainte de criza).

Sistemul bancar este gripat si nu poate acorda credite fara o dobanda reala de 20%, ceea ce face costul creditelor imobiliare de nesustinut. Se poate aprecia ca cine acceseaza un credit imobiliar, in aceasta perioada, are 90% sanse sa intre in faliment si sa isi piarda proprietatile.

 

Piata imobiliara este asediata de supra-oferta.

 

Prabusirea imobiliara va continua si se va accentua si datorita aparitiei pe piata imobiliara, ca urmare a falimentelor individuale si de firma, a peste 10.000 de hectare de terenuri construibile, intravilane, ce vor prabusi preturile terenurilor suplimentar.

In plus va aparea pe piata si un fond imobiliar de peste 1.000-2.000 de vile, in zone precum Colentina, Bucurestii Noi, Pipera, Baneasa, Damaroaia etc. care se vor vinde pe piata cu preturi sub 60.000 de euro vor impinge si fosta piata de lux a imobiliarelor in prabusire.

Acestea sunt estimari prudente, cuprinzand date de proprietati  ce se afla pe listele publice de licitatie, cu preturi deja fixate, anunta Lo Petersen, reprezentantul unui consortiu bancar activand pe piata romaneasca. Pe langa aceste proprietati altele se vor adauga in acest an, pe fondul scaderii continue a economiei romanesti a subliniat acelasi oficial.

Economistul sef, Mihail Racaceanu a subliniat din nou in discursul sau ca piata imobiliara nu se poate rupe de climatul nefavorabil al economiei romanesti si europene.

Realitatea ce trebuie subliniata, iar si iar, este ca evolutiile de pe piata imobiliara sunt corelate cu evolutia salariului mediu pe economie.

Pretul unui metru patrat construit, in zonele centrale, nu poate depasi  de doua ori valoarea salariului minim pe economie. Cum in Romania salariul minim  este de sub 200 de euro, rezulta ca nicio casa nu se poate vinde cu un pret de peste 400 de euro pe metru patrat.

O parte din responsabilitatea crizei imobiliare cade pe umerii lipsei de educatie a consumatorului roman si a agentului imobiliar. Rolul acestuia din urma este de a ii consilia pe vanzatori asupra necesitatii de a reduce rapid preturile pentru a ramane pe piata ofertelor.

 Daca nu va exista acest curaj de a spune adevarul clientilor, falimentul pe piata imobiliara se va face in continuare simtit. Repunerea in miscare a pietei imobiliare nu se poate face pana cand preturile nu sunt fortate sa coboare rapid la zona de interes de 300-400 de euro, a concluzionat economistul sef.

Piata case/ vilelor:principala victima a anului 2013.

 

In 2013, in continuare, cele mai drastice scaderi vor avea loc pe piata caselor si a  vilelor.

Criza economiei a redus posibilitatile de achizitionare si joc pe aceasta piata in mod dramatic, in plus cheltuielile crescute de mentenanta a acestui tip de proprietati agraveaza situatia parcului imobiliar.

Factor agravant, acest tip de proprietati este cel mai vulnerabil la rambursarea creditelor, executate rapid si vandute la preturi de 80.000 de euro, vilele mai pot ajuta bancile sa isi recupereze din pierderi. Ca atare si in acest an, atacul bancaro-imobilar se va concentra pe acest sector. Zone precum : Mosilor, Damaroaia,Bucurestii Noi,  Pipera, Baneasa, Tunari se mai pot vinde inca cu preturi in jurul a 60.000 de euro, restul sunt zonelor,  precum sudul si estul capitalei, sunt nevandabile, piata fiind inchisa. Executarile silite vor reinviora piata vilelor vandute la preturi sub 60.000 de euro, au subliniat expertii prezenti la discutie.

real estate1

Cine cumpara : pierde ! este zicala anului 2013.

Cine cumpara, pierde.

Pentru a rezolva problema pietei imobiliare rolul agentiilor imobiliare si al agentilor imobiliare este capital. Numai din aceasta zona poate veni presiunea pentru dinamizarea pietii : scaderea rapida a preturilor cu 50% si presarea proprietarilor spre a intra pe piata imobiliara reala si nu fantezista a proprietatilor, este singura ce poate permite reinceperea vanzarilor si re-aparitia profitului pe piata.

Trebuie sa intelegem o lectie evidenta, anume ca nimeni nu va investii in Romania la preturi de 400 sau 500 de euro metru patrat, cand va gasi acelasi oportunitati in Ungaria, Bulgaria, Turcia sau Grecia la preturi de sub 100 de euro metru patrat. Investitia va merge spre profit  nu spre pierdere, iar deocamdata cine cumpara o proprietate in Romania la actualele preturi pierde, a fost concluzia invitatiilor la conferinta.

February 4, 2013 Posted by | Diplomatie, Economia Romaniei, Educatie, Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, Mass media, Piata imobiliara, Politica externa a Romaniei, Real Eastate, Romanian economy, Turism | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ROMANIA-KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMIC COOPERATION PROMOTED

On 30 of January 2013, under the auspices of Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, the bilateral meeting between Kazakhstan Charge D`affairs to Romania-Talgat Kaliyev and Romanian Minister of Tourism, Business Environment and Small and Middle Enterprises-Maria Grapini has taken place.

 

Ministerul Turismului

Professor Dr. Anton Caragea, Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation,Romanian Minister of Tourism, Business Environment and Small and Middle Enterprises-Maria Grapini and H.E. Kazakhstan Charge D`affairs to Romania-Talgat Kaliyev ( from left to right)

 

Ambassador Talgat Kaliyev had started by expressing Kazakhstan side appreciation for Romanian efforts in supporting Astana-`s candidature as host of World Expo 2017 and in organizing the exhibition ASTANA: CAPITAL OF THE FUTURE in Bucharest. Tabled at the meeting were also the Romanian projects of participation to 2017 World Expo in Astana-Kazakhstan capital. The opening of Romania-Kazakhstan Business Council and the concrete projects of economic cooperation between the two countries where also discussed.

Minister Maria Grapini had underlined the necessity for Romania to stay true to the national interest of holding the strategic partnership with Kazakhstan. In this amicable atmosphere was approached  the issue of  bilateral economic cooperation in the framework of   Romania-Kazakhstan  Business Council  and a series of concrete projects designed to develop the bilateral relation in the next period.

Afterwards, Kazakhstan Charge d`affairs was invited to attend the open planning  meeting between Professor Dr. Anton Caragea and Minister Maria Grapini regarding the main priorities and tourism development strategy for EU and Romania for 2013.

During the strategy meeting where discussed issues like: ambassadors trip for 2013 and Romanian participation to great European projects for tourism development and the nomination for Organizer of World Expo 2020.

Consultari Ministerul Turismului

February 4, 2013 Posted by | Diplomacy, Economy, Foreign policy, History, Informations, International Relation, Leaders, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

COOPERARE IN DOMENIUL ECONOMIC INTRE ROMANIA SI KAZAHSTAN

In data de 30 ianuarie 2013, in organizarea prof.dr.Anton Caragea, Directorul Institutului de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, a avut loc intalnirea intre Insarcinatul cu Afaceri al Kazahstanului in Romania-Talgat Kaliyev si Ministrul Turismului, Mediului de Afaceri si Intreprinderilor Mici si Mijlocii-D-na Maria Grapini .

Ministerul Turismului

Prof.dr.Anton Caragea, Directorul Institutului de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, Ministrul Turismului, Mediului de Afaceri si Intreprinderilor Mici si Mijlocii-D-na Maria Grapini si Insarcinatul cu Afaceri al Kazahstanului in Romania-Talgat Kaliyev ( de la stanga la dreapta)

 

In cadrul intalnirii Excelenta sa Talgat Kaliyev a multumit pentru sustinerea acordata de catre Romania  candidaturii capitalei Kazahstanului, Astana, pentru Expozitia Universala din 2017 si pentru organizarea la Bucuresti a Expozitiei de arta : Astana –Capitala Viitorului . Cu aceasta ocazie au fost trecute in revista proiectele concrete de participare a Romaniei la Expozitia Universala de la Astana. Totodata ambasadorul Kazahstanului a prezentat deschiderea Consiliului de Afaceri Romania-Kazahstan in luna octombrie 2012 si rolul capital al acestei institutii in dialogul economic bilateral.

D-na Ministru Maria Grapini a observat ca Romania trebuie sa depuna si va depune in continuare toate eforturile necesare pentru dezvoltarea relatiei strategice Romania –Kazahstan  si pentru dezvoltarea cooperarii economice intre cele doua tari in cadrul Consiliului de Afaceri Romania-Kazahstan si a discutat apoi proiecte concrete de dezvoltare a relatiei bilaterale in perioada urmatoare.

Apoi Insarcinatul cu Afaceri al Kazahstanului-Talgat Kaliyev a fost invitat sa participe la discutia intre prof.dr.Anton Caragea si D-na Ministru Maria Grapini privind stabilirea prioritatilor pentru perioada urmatoare si strategia de turism europeana si romaneasca pentru perioada anului 2013.

In cadrul strategiei pentru dezvoltarea turismului au fost trecute in revista excursiile ambasadorilor pentru anul 2013 si participarea Romaniei la marile proiecte europene si la nominalizarea organizatorului  World Expo 2020.

Consultari Ministerul Turismului

February 4, 2013 Posted by | Diplomacy, Economy, Foreign policy, History, International Relation, Leaders, Mass media, News, Politics | , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment