ROMANIA IS FOSTERING A NEW COLD WAR AT BLACK SEA by Professor Anton Caragea
In the last months the use of Romanian foreign politics by Republicans in United States to hinder Barrack Obama policy , gets an unusual scrutiny as the Bucharest movements in the Black Sea region are reminding more and more of a Cold war time activity than a peaceful time diplomacy. The Bucharest support for Georgian army re-equipment and for Georgian government strong positions toward Russia or the support offered from Bucharest to the Moldavian anti-Russian and reformist government and finally the decision unilaterally announced by Romania to host the controversial antimissile shield left the region in limbo. But what is behind this biting the nose of Russia policy practice by Romania?
Tension at Black Sea.
From august 2008 when the Georgian – Russian war has broken out the peace at Black sea seemed long forgotten. Almost on a monthly bases Tbilisi is trying, to put a brave face the latest part in this never ending saga: a broadcast in the night of 13 March at a Georgian television announcing that Russian troops have invaded Georgia and President Saackashvili, a staunch opponent to Russia was assassinated. This latest part in a show of tension between Georgia and Russia was destined to unify Georgian people against Russia and to boost the Georgian president authority. But this was just a media show; in January 2010 Tbilisi hosted an energy summit destined to promote an alternative energy route and source of supplies bypassing Russia. Only Romania was present at this show of force sending the Minister of Economy Adriean Videanu while the rest of the countries choose to ignore the invitation or to send no names to this anti-Russia show.
A Black Sea with NATO forces.
A new initiative from Romania is sending sock waives on Black Sea. A debate on Montreaux Convention (signed in 1936 and neutralizing the Dardanelle Straits and banning foreign military naval forces entering in the Black Sea) Now important voices are explaining that United States bases from Bulgaria and Romania could not be defended properly and neither the anti-missile shield could not operate at 100% capacity without a NATO permanent presence in the Black Sea. In NATO will established a stable naval based on the model of Mediterranean Sea the faith of Russian navy will be sealed and in 2018 when Sevastopol base will be evacuated practically the Black Sea will become a NATO lake and operation like 2008 war with Georgia will be unthinkable .
Romania- Poland: a wall on the East.
In the next weeks the Romanian President is waited in Poland in a visit destined to forge a new Romania – Poland alliance. Nominally the alliance is directed towards nobody but as foreign commentator said is enough to look on the map to see where the alliance is directed. Also history is marking that in 1921 Poland and Romania also marked a partnership against Soviet Russia, a partnership that resisted until the broken of the Second World War in 1939. This successful partnership on controlling Eastern Europe is a memory that remained registered in the diplomatic memory of Bucharest and Warsaw.
Chisinau: a new line of confrontation.
A success of the last year of this powerful policy toward East headed by Bucharest was the orange revolution held in Chisinau that chased out of power the communist party and offered a slim majority to the pro-Europe opposition. This success was quickly fortified by Romania with economic help and with a strong advocacy voice in Europe pressing for a support to the young democracy flourishing in Moldova. But clouds are gathering quickly. The communist opposition is strong enough to block the elections of any pro-Europe candidate and this could lead to anticipate elections. In a climate of economic disorder and high inflation and with a monthly medium wage ranged around 40 USD a communist victory is almost inevitable. Bucharest is supporting a reform movement that is trying to modify the way that the President is elected giving a chance to avoid new elections. Russia is not regarding this Romanian involvement in what is consider here back door with positive eyes. Contrary Russia ,after here victory in Ukraine where a candidate of centrist parties Viktor Yanukovich, favorable to a friendship policy towards Moscow has reported a resounding victory, is concentrating his efforts on new battle ground: Moldavia.
Romania and Ukraine: or how the love has faded away.
Five years ago when an orange revolution sweep to power in Bucharest President Traian Basescu and in Ukraine , President Victor Yushcenko a honeymoon was established between Romania and Ukraine . Both presidents initiated a reform movement in the Russia influence area, supported Georgia`s Mikhail Saakashvili independence politics and foster a plan for democracy building even in Russia. But this time quickly became history, now in Ukraine an independent personality, with a strong backing from Russian speaking eastern part of the country come to power. Usually the Romanian President was an all time presence in Kiev, this time he didn’t find time to participate in the inaugural ceremony of Viktor Yanukovich . Also recent declaration reminding that Romania is having issues with Ukraine regarding Romanian minority rights in Ukraine, a controversial channel build by Ukraine on Danube Delta and many other issues all are depicting a more tension image. If we put in the balance that Ukraine is having herself interests in Republic of Moldavia that are not exactly the same as Romania`s presidential vision we could say that the honey moon is over.
The shield of our discontent.
Finally the already world known decision take but Romanian President to host the long debated anti-missile shield on Romanians soil. The decision taken without Parliament consent or political approval send Moscow in a rage speaking even by Cold War resurrection .The decision made tones of ink to be spread on newspapers and comments and will surely make many other tones in the next months . The most important is the United States attitude; already the Republican personalities announced that they will not forget the Romanian strong pro-US stance and promised a strong support if they will take the control of the Parliament in November elections. A long line of republicans key figure already find their way to Romania expressing their views that Bucharest will be even strongly backed in this baiting the nose of Russia policy if they will take the reins after Barrack Obama. In this Black Sea policy the next move will come in the next months from Russia. What this move will be?
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