Centrul Diplomatic/Diplomatic Center

Centrul de Studii Politice si Diplomatie/ Center for Political Science and Diplomacy


Economic forecast: Romanian economy in 2013. GDP, Inflation, Bankruptcy.

Wednesday 30 of January 2013 at the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation headquarters was held the first conference of 2013: The evolution of Romanian economy in 2013. The aggravating crisis!


Beggars on the street of Romania: a sign of failed economic policy 

The conference has joined economical experts from Romania and European Union, economical supervisors and personalities of political, economical and academic life of Romania.

2009- 2012 –the first period of crisis.

The conference started with an evaluation of the impact of economic crisis in the last period: 2009-2012.

In 2009 the economic crisis has affected the vital areas of economic life: the collapse has started with construction industry and construction material factories and collapse continued by the real estate market shrinking. Others affected sectors where: insurance, banking and stock exchange and in all the financial sector was strongly shaken down. The consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has being reduced with 10% in 2010 and 8% in 2011.

The decrease in Romanian economy has being so devastating that now we are below the 2000 level. Unfortunately the economic collapse of 2010-2012 has laid the foundation for a crisis without equivalent in Romanian history that will affect the country in 2013.

Discutii inainte de conferintaProfessor dr. Anton Caragea-Director of Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation chairing the romanian economist`s meeting.

2011-2012: The period of economic earthquake.

2011 and 2012 will be remembered as the worst years of economic turmoil in Romania, had appreciated in one voice all the experts present at the gathering.

First of all the 2011 has being the year in which the Romanian economy had collected all the hard hits from all the economic collapse of the last years. The financial system has being especially hard hit and this had made the fragile Romanian economy to reach the breaking point. The inflation had resurfaced and the experts appreciate that a 10% percent yearly inflation is unavoidable.

The resurgence of inflation had put a dramatic pressure on population economy and had made any recovery unthinkable for the next 4-8 years.

The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments had being reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market has being practically suspended and all this had provoke for 2012 an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis is the governmental incompetence that by increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investors in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

2013 – European economic crisis will impact hard on Romania.

The 2013 will be a decisive year to on how will be affected the Romanian economy by the European meltdown.

Until now the Romanian economy was hit hard by his own faults like: reduced productivity and competitiveness, chaos in the governmental policy, crippling inflation etc. In 2013 Romania will be affected by the decay in European economic activity.

Crisis hit Spain, Greece, and Ireland and slowing down economy of Germany, France and Great Britain, will impact negative on Romanian chances to get access to European funds and foreign investments.

Romanian economy and policy maker are not yet conceptual prepared to understand that Romanian EU membership had became a liability and a negative factor in the future of Romania, appreciated the representative of Foreign Export Company Association Mr. Marcel Alexandru.

The negative impact of European Union financial and confidence crisis will account for a 2-5% percent reduction in Romanian GDP this year.

 2013 will be without a doubt a period of a new catastrophic decline. It must be very clear, all economic experts underlined, that the present economic decline will last for at least a decade at European level, so all those opinions that declared that Romania will start a new economic growth before the next 10 years; either don’t know what they are saying, either is bluntly laying.

All the European statistics are speaking about the lost decade of Europe between 2010 and 2020 , term referring to the blocking of economic development at continental level and the frozen of present situation for a decade.

Those that are declaring that Romania will surpass the period of recovering of  France or Great Britain economy , are telling stories that are unbelievable , stated chief economist- Mihail Racaceanu. What is important is to succeed that we have in 2013 a decrease in real economy of less than 10% and in the interval between 2013 and 2018 to stop the decline and in 2020 to come back to pre-crisis level.

homelessin London

Homeless and hungry in Great Britain. How EU crisis will affect Romania ?

2013 budget- a budget of economic decline.

In 2013 the Romanian economy is coming to the fore not only with the negatives trends of the last years and a crippling inflation but also with a budget of austerity that will direct Romania to plunge into a new economic meltdown.

The 2013 budget is the first budget in the eight year period that is not approved prior to 1-th of January, a negative record that is impacting Romanian economic stability and is giving a sign of chaos in the government economic policy.

The budget expected deficit of 2, 4% percent of GDP it not offering any chance for a real economic recovery, massive investment projects are abandoned and the decline in the economy is estimated by independent economist around 8-10% percent of the GDP by the year’s end.

What is dramatic is the reduction in the direct investment in the economy, with less than 8 billion euro investment planned for this year the Romanian economy had to struggle for sustainability. Reduced foreign investment and dramatically shrinking internal private investment means that Romania will have now more that 10 billion euro (in an optimistic assessment) for investment programs. The country needs at least 20 billion per year to modernize the economy and to have a decent growth rate of 1-2% percent per year. He present day budget is not only of severe austerity but of severe contraction stated the economists present at the meeting.

Romanian economy recover postponed to 2050.

This assessment was a strong one, keeping in mind that the pre-crisis governmental statistic declared that in 2025 Romania will succeed in recuperating the gap and reach the level of industrial activity prior to 1989 Revolution.

This perspective is no longer feasible, a new perspective is appearing after the crisis and after the lost decade and a cumulative GDP decrease of more than 60% from 2007 economy level.

This economic recession will be hard to recuperate in the context of zero governmental involvement, the general economic climate of recession and finally the worst factor of all: the burden of external debt.

The resurgence of inflation will put a dramatic pressing on population economy and will make any recovery unthinkable for the next 1-2 years. The collapse in economic system, the internal and external investments will be reduced to minimum, the credit on internal market will be suspended and all this will provoke next year an economic decrease of more than 15% of GDP or even 18% of GDP after others opinions. A factor not to be neglected in amplification of the crisis in the governmental incompetence that by: increasing the taxes, legislative chaos and a deliberate politics of destroying the middle class investor in the favor of big companies all did nothing ells than to aggravate the economic crisis.

External debt risk can plunge Romania into financial meltdown.

The fear factor that will suffocate Romanian economy in the next period will be, after 2015, the foreign debt crisis.

The Emil Boc government has careless accepted more than 36 billion dollars credit and in total the private and state debt of Romania is reaching the unbelievable sum of 95 billion dollars, this only if the government will no longer accept new loans.

In 2012 the Mihai Razvan Ungureanu government succeeded in just a few months to reduce the National bank Reserves by 20 billion euro, an unprecedented squandering of public money in Romanian history.

Despite the writing on the wall, in all of cases like Greece, Spain and Ireland, Romania is accepting new loan from International Monetary Fund, loans that will not be invested in developing and modernizing the economy but in salaries and pensions. This consumer invested loans at extortionate interest rates will suffocate completely an ailing and failed economy as Romanian economy is.

Unemployment: with a rate of registered unemployment of more than 12% of the active population and with another 15% percent of the population already left out of the governmental unemployment aide, Romania tops many EU member countries with a real unemployment figure of more than 25% of the population. This figure must be put in perspective with more that 50% of the population below the poverty line and the full picture of the economic meltdown and social tragedy could be analyzed. Romania economy is in crises and no plans for a future development had not being adopted.

2013: The worsening of economic crisis.

The conclusion of the most important economic experts of Romania was clear: the crisis is not over by far, but has entered in a more difficult faze that will affect financial and banking system and economic fundament`s. The economic crisis will continue until 2017 at the earliest and a coming back cycle that will last until 2025. This decade will be without a doubt the lost decade of Romania but if the necessary measures are not rapidly taken to re-establish control on economic decline than we risk that Romania economy will not come back not even in 2025.

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We are living through difficult and boisterous time. A period of rapid changes in world economic and political system, a time of powerful crisis that is shaking the fundaments of national states and of national economies and is putting under strain the social protection and all the values of economic neo-liberalism.

professor dr.Anton Caragea at kazakhstan 2050

In this chaotic period, just a few nations are allowed the luxury of economic and political long time forecast and predictability: China and United States are creating and proposing to their people and foreign partners a long term vision of development and national statehood construction.
In a time of peril and un-certitude, when even a short time economic prediction is considered hazardous, just a few nations are having the will to act as beacons of lights and direction for their region.

In 17th of December 2012 Kazakhstan had enter to this select club of nations, conscientious of their role and position in the continental and world stage by presenting an ambitious, realistic and well carved plan for future of Kazakhstan until 2050.
By the voice of his President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan had created the prototype of a long term, healthy and stable construction model for the country, the region and the world.

Kazakhstan 2030: weathering the storm and creating a nation.

Kazakhstan it is not at the first step in a managed transition towards a stable and democratic society and a powerful economy.
In 1997 Kazakhstan had already carved the landmarks of his astonishing development by the presidential strategy- Kazakhstan 2030.
Far from being just a window dressing, the strategy for 2030 had proved to be a perfect way for charting Kazakhstan after the independence in the incertitude of nation building and construction of a viable economy.
The program had allowed Kazakhstan to tap into national reserves of oil and gas, to gush out of the enclave country status via the reconstructed Silk Road of energy and trade, to create a modern economy, not depending only on energy resources, to build a huge potential of national intelligence and to foster the economy of knowledge, the base for a XXI century reliable economy.

The long string of economic successes was accompanied in the internal sphere by political stability, based on democratic and open society values, the protection of national and religious minorities.
In the area of external policy, Kazakhstan had gather the powerful laurels of a successful reform project carried out during his Presidency of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. An impressive success was also the unprecedented two year chairmanship of Organization of Islamic Conference that transformed Kazakhstan in a leader of dialogue between Islam and Western world.

The latest major diplomatic achievement of Kazakhstan was the proposal of building an area of security and cooperation in Europe and Asia, launched in September 2012, in Astana, at CICA Conference by President Nursultan Nazarbayev. This latest proposal makes Kazakhstan the promoter of an all-inclusive, intercontinental dialogue, that could transform the political landscape of XXI century.
In the end, Kazakhstan 2030 had proved to be not only a successful strategy for Kazakhstan, but also an example for all the countries of the world on how a nation by the sole fact of building himself, can become a regional and world significant player.

The main pillar of Kazakhstan 2050: understanding of XXI century.

In its world acclaimed book: The Seven Pillars of Wisdom, the famous Lawrence of Arabia had mentioned that: the most important, but also decisive part of a plan is to be in line with the necessity of his time.
Kazakhstan 2050 starts by outlining the fundaments of the world in XXI century. A period of change, of accelerating history, of economic, political and ecological challenges, a world completely different from the world of XX century.
Instead of training to force the reality to enter in the realm of possibility, Kazakhstan 2050 is offering a realistic and practical assessment of the necessities of today world and of the available solutions.
Fallowing his long term tradition, Kazakhstan understands that creating a success story and offering solutions to the world is the best way to serve not only his interest, but also to add value to his place in the world.
Kazakhstan 2050: good news for people of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan had become in the last 20 years an abode of peace, inter-ethnic and inter-religious understanding in a troubled world. One of the explanation is undoubtedly the economic success that made the Kazakhstan not only one of the fastest growing economy in the world, but also a top investor destination in the world economy statistics.

Kazakhstan 2050 is providing the basis for this healthy economy to continue his growth process. Investing in social protection and creating a strong internal demand are key factors for a stable rate of growth. Modernizing the economic potential, investing in new technologies are policy that will insure the world competitiveness of Kazakhstan national economy and the creation of a knowledge based economy are also a profitable long term investment.

The modern economy is based on technological transfer and Kazakhstan is becoming a champion in modernizing the basis of his economy via technology transfer and more important, Kazakhstan educational system mixed with the accent on entrepreneurship in economic development is creating the base for a managerial revolution, that will put Kazakhstan among the top economy`s of the world in term of creativity and intelligence incorporated in economic production.

Extremely interesting it is also the concept of a Kazakhstan patriotism. Instead of playing the card of nationalism or chauvinism, President Nursultan Nazarbayev is calling for the tradition, language and equality to blend into a new and successful Kazakh: a person well educated, wealthy , healthy enjoying the benefits of a modern state and administration and a state of the art medical system.
Kazakhstan is promising to put at the core of his foundation plan for 2050 the individual and his chances to prevail in a complex XXI century.

From Kazakhstan to the world. From world to Kazakhstan.

One of the keys of Kazakhstan national and international success was understanding that Kazakhstan could not evolve alone in the world, but always must stay in touch and be an intricate part of the world evolutions. There are many examples that support this conjecture in Kazakhstan two decades of independence story.

Kazakhstan economic miracle was built on partnership with western companies and oil extraction technology, but also on political negotiation with Russia on Caspian Sea exploration.
The Astana Expo 2017 will also be a proof of the lesson of mutual profit that Kazakhstan is offering to the world. Kazakhstan management of energy, the lessons of ecology and energy for a future, of environment protection, are going to be beneficial for the world economy and for the generations to come. This is just a new illustration of the Kazakhstan concept of successful quest for global significance.
Kazakhstan economic development had transformed the country in a major player in the development of Asia and Europe. Kazakhstan 2050 promises to continue this wise policy: from Kazakhstan to the world, from world to Kazakhstan, creating a synergy that could only beneficial for all the world nations.

Now the lessons of Kazakhstan 2050 are available for everybody: an example of a society of free people building a country for the future, not in isolation or competition, but in harmony with the world nations. In the concert of nations Kazakhstan is ushering in a new tone: a tone of hope.

Professor dr. Anton Caragea MA, FINS, Dr.Hc

December 27, 2012 Posted by | History, Politics, Economy, Mass media, News, Informations, Foreign policy, Ecology, Environment, Travel, Religion, Tourism, African affairs, Latin America, International Relation, Eastern Europe, Open Letter, Leaders, Diplomacy, United States, Syria, Russia, Russian Affairs, Saints life, United Arab Emirates, Romanian Revolution, Fidel Castro, Kazahstan, OSCE-Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Nursultan Nazarbayev, United Nations Global Compact, Palestine, War Crimes, Bertrand Russell Tribunal, Al Quds, Ierusalim - Al Quds, Blackseanews Agency, Romanian economy, Economia Romaniei, Oriental Art, Orient, Educatie, Universitati, Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, World Cup, Real Eastate, European Council on International Relations, Islam, Comunitatea Musulmana din Romania, Socialism, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, Academia de Stiinte Medicale, Corcova Roy&Damboviceanu, Information on Korea, Korea, Coreea, Informatii despre Coreea, Turism, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, G20 Summit, Macedonia, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Piata imobiliara, Diplomatie, Romanian Foreign Policy, World Social Forum, Communism, Cold War, Maramures County, UNESCO Heritage List, Bashar Al Assad, President Bashar Al Assad, Syrian Revolution, Damascus, Human Rights Council, Relatii Internationale, Ministerul Afacerilor Externe, Siria, Danube Delta, Tajikistan, Forumul Ecologistilor din Romania, Emomali Rahmon, Medical Tourism, Turism Medical, Clinica Lara Life Med, Trinidad and Tobago, WORLD BEST TOURIST DESTINATION AWARD, Venezuela, Politica externa a Romaniei, Kazakstan, Astana, Kazakhstan, Hugo Chavez, PREMIUL PENTRU VOCATIA COOPERARII INTERNATIONALE | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment


Intre 17 si 19 iunie 2011, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica a organizat EXCURSIA DESCOPERA DELTA DUNARII, pentru membrii corpului diplomatic ce sau evidentiat in cooperarea lor stransa cu Institutul in ultima perioada ( Qatar si Emiratele Arabe Unite ).

Ambasadorul Salem Al Jaber ( (Qatar ) si Ambasadorul Yacoub Yousef al Hosani ascultand povestirile unui veteran al Deltei: Petru Lificiu -vicepresedinte ANRE

Programul DESCOPERA DELTA DUNARII este parte integranta a programului DESCOPERA ROMANIA, initiat de profesorul Anton Caragea , directorul Institutului de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica pentru a oferii ambasadorilor acreditati in Romania posibilitatea de a descoperii frumusetile naturale si oportunitatile economice oferite de Romania .

Tulcea vazuta de pe Dunare. Excursia incepe.

In acest an excursiile diplomatice au fost orientate , in primavara spre Nordul tarii, spre Maramures si acum a doua excursie diplomatica spre regiunea de Sud, in zona Dunarii.
In aceasta vara excursia diplomatica a fost orientata spre DELTA DUNARII, deoarece Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica si-a oferit Inaltul Patronaj CONFERINTEI INTERNATIONALE DUNAREA SI DELTA DUNARII (23-26 iunie 2011).

Excursia a avut ca baza orasul Tulcea, oras istoric , cu o vechime documentara de peste 2.000 de ani, unde diplomatii sau putut bucura de atmosfera multi-etnica si pluri-religioasa a regiunii, dar si de deliciile bucatariei locale.

Biserica Albastra-monument UNESCO

Excursia diplomatilor a inclus si o calatorie de o zi prin zonele secrete ale Deltei Dunarii si vizite in sate precum Mila 23, sat al lipovenilor ( populatie de origina rusa refugiata in zona pentru a scapa de persecutiile religioase din Rusia secolului XVII ), apoi diplomatii sau putut bucura de atmosfera unui sat pescaresc, pierdut intre apele Dunarii si observa vestita Biserica Albastra , cea mai veche biserica a regiunii.
Vizita in regiunea Deltei Dunarii s-a incheiat cu excursia la Sulina , odinioara perla Dunarii.

Farul de la Sulina

Vizita a inclus o calatorie speciala la Catedrala Ortodoxa din Sulina construita de primul rege al Romaniei- Carol I ( 1866-1914 ) , Farul de la Sulina construit de Comisia Europeana a Dunarii in 1858 si Muzeul faimosului scriitor al Dunarii Jean Bart si Palatul Comisiei Europene a Dunarii.

Palatul Comisiei Europene a Dunarii

Ambasadorii, inclusi in program, au laudat traditia culinara a regiunii, peisajele splendide oferite de Dunare si bogatia istorica si arheologica a regiunii.
Totodata si-au exprimat interesul in sprijinirea de parteneriate si investitii din tarile lor in regiune si in importantele proiecte turistice ce se desfasoara in zona.
Ambasadorii au vizitat sediul celei mai importante amenajari turistice din zona, la Murghion ( langa antica cetate Halmirys ) unde se construieste un port de nave, port de elicoptere si un complex balnear si de placere cu peste 1.000 de locuri de cazare si resedinta .

Ambasadorul Yacoub Yousef al Hosani , Presedintele Forumului Ecologistilor dl.Petru Lificiu si sotia, Prof.Dr. Anton Caragea-Director IRICE , Dl.Mihai Pufulene-proprietarul Complexului Murghiol si Ambasadorul Salem Al Jaber

Excelenta Sa Ambasadorul Yacoub Yousef Al Hosani al Emiratelor Arabe Unite si-a exprimat aprecierea fata de Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica si profesorul Anton Caragea pentru organizarea unei calatorii in aceasta zona mirifica , inclusa de UNESCO pe lista monumentelor naturale universale .

Excelenta Sa Ambasadorul Salem Al Jaber al Statului Qatar si-a exprimat aprecierea fata de Profesorul Anton Caragea in calitate de organizator al evenimentului care a facut sa straluceasca o zona plina de frumusete si ospitalitate care trebuie vizitata de straini si romani totodata.

June 29, 2011 Posted by | Blackseanews Agency, Comunitatea Musulmana din Romania, Danube Delta, Diplomacy, Diplomatie, Eastern Europe, Ecology, Economia Romaniei, Economy, Educatie, Environment, European Council on International Relations, Foreign policy, History, Human Rights Council, Informations, Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, International Relation, Islam, Leaders, Maramures County, Mass media, Ministerul Afacerilor Externe, News, Open Letter, Orient, Oriental Art, Politics, Real Eastate, Relatii Internationale, Religion, Romanian economy, Romanian Foreign Policy, Romanian Revolution, Russia, Siria, Socialism, Tourism, Travel, Turism, UNESCO Heritage List, United Arab Emirates, Universitati, Universities | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment


Between 17 and 21 March 2011 the Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania had hosted the annual event called diplomatic spring trip, destined to offer to ambassadors accredited to Romania the opportunity to discover the beauties of our country but also to allow them to have a better knowledge of the business and investment opportunity presents in different part of our country.

This year at the request and invitation of the famous Romanian political leader Vasile Vlasin –director of Transylvania Regional Development Agency- the diplomatic trip was directed towards discovering Maramures- a region world famous for her beauty but also remote location.

Professor Anton Caragea, director of Institute of International relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania has announced that due to budget constraints this year the trip will be open for ambassadors that had already build a long standing relationship with the Institute and are interested in promoting economic ties between their countries and the visited region.

The program for the trip was extremely well tailored including an extensive exploration of local political and economic environment with official visits to Prefect of the Maramures County, to main Mayors Office in the region and with top business community leaders and a lot of meet the press opportunity on the long trip in Maramures. Cities as Baia Mare, Sighet of Marmatia and Borsa were honored to host the Discover Maramures Program for diplomats and offered warm greeting the ambassador’s convoy.

The economic part of the program was hailed as a success the ambassadors represented in the delegation expressing special interest for residual water  plants manufactures in the region, furniture factory and investments in land and tourism facilities in Maramures . It was taken the decision to direct all this request and future investment opportunities by the Transylvania Regional Development Agency that will insure the right environment to establish contacts and to explore regional investment opportunities .

The diplomat’s agenda on the tour of beautiful Maramures was not only confined to political and economic meetings. Also visits to all UNESCO world heritage sites in Maramures where included in the program. As a special favor to the ambassadors the group was hosted at the UNESCO protected Monastery of Barsana, in the building that hosted Prince Charles of Great Britain during his trip in the region and they were welcomed in the famous museum of the monastery. The visit was also seasoned with unforgettable moments as a breakfast at 2.000 meters altitude and a bird eye view of Suior valley by a sky – gondola and a hike on a sky-jet where ambassadors could prove their driving abilities and also taking part in special folk dances.

The trip was a success in combining useful meetings and pleasant times in the final press conference the ambassadors present in the trip express their gratitude for the rare opportunity to discover a region so beautiful and rich in landscape and scenic spots.   Professor Anton Caragea, director of   Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation of Romania expressed his determination to bring as soon as possible new delegations in the area in order to further support the regional development and to develop in the area.

A relaxation moment for ambassadors . Blending with the locals

Barsana Monastery – UNESCO World heritage Monument. Ambassadors where hosted in the palace also used by Prince Charles during his stay in Maramures

Mineralogy Museum in Baia Mare . The ambassador of United Arab Emirates looking at precious gems  .

Happy Cemetery from Sapanta . UNESCO world heritage list and a most stop in Maramures visit

The folk music assembly Maramures is singhing a HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO YOU for IRICE Director Professor Anton Caragea

The House of Iarca Music Assembly has conquered the hearts and minds of ambassadors

Cutting the cake in honor of Prof.Anton Caragea birthday

A moment of relaxation in a dense visit.


March 22, 2011 Posted by | Corcova Roy&Damboviceanu, Diplomacy, Diplomatie, Eastern Europe, Ecology, Economia Romaniei, Economy, Educatie, Environment, History, Informations, Institute of International Relations and Economic Cooperation, Institutul de Relatii Internationale si Cooperare Economica, International Relation, Leaders, Maramures County, Mass media, News, Piata imobiliara, Politics, Romanian economy, Romanian Foreign Policy, Socialism, Tourism, Travel, UNESCO Heritage List, Universities | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment



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